The rampant speculation and insider trading on crypto-betting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have been making headlines for the past few months.
Insiders that are connected to the Trump administration have made millions of dollars betting on the precise outcome of events like the US-Israeli war on Iran and the kidnapping of Nicholas Maduro.
For example, one account made $500,000 after betting that Ayatollah Khamenei would be toppled – moments before his assassination by Israel. Similarly, other insiders who are clearly linked to Donald Trump, bet over $950 million on the price of oil falling, hours before the US and Iran’s temporary ceasefire deal.
The profiting from insider trading has gotten so blatant that the White House has even had to warn its staff not to trade with insider information. This warning had nothing to do with moral concerns, of course, but with national security. And despite these warnings, Trump and his family continue to make a killing from market manipulation.
Breaking: Turns out Trump owned Nvidia the whole time too
On January 6th, he bought up to $1,000,000 in $NVDA
7 days later, his Commerce Department formally approved Nvidia H200 chip exports to China
Then on February 10th, he bought up to $5,000,000 more$NVDA is up 22% since… pic.twitter.com/iPJbQOZK0x
— Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ (@pelositracker) May 15, 2026
Profiting from death
Insider trading by the capitalist class – which is supposed to be illegal – is not a new phenomenon, nor is it linked exclusively to Trump and his inner circle.
Prominent Democrat and former speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi has been accused of insider trading multiple times. Her fortuitous, lucrative stock purchases have even led to a ‘Nancy Pelosi stock tracker’ being set up in order to allow ordinary investors to piggy-back on her success.
Nancy Pelosi just made her yearly salary in a day
Today, her CrowdStrike position is up +7%
She made ~$161,500 from $CRWD today alone
Her net worth is ~$280,000,000 pic.twitter.com/00nkJZph07
— Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ (@pelositracker) May 7, 2026
And in January 2020, former US Senator Kelly Loeffler and her husband sold millions of dollars of stocks following a private senate briefing on the impact of COVID-19, ahead of public disclosure on the true severity of the virus.
Some bleeding-heart liberals have been clutching their pearls over Polymarket facilitating direct wagers on war or assassinations, which are prohibited by US law. But this is completely hypocritical.
Platforms like Polymarket allow morally reprehensible bets to be placed directly on the likelihood of assassinations and war, in a very publicly visible manner. But the capitalists have in fact been profiting from death and destruction – both directly and indirectly – for decades.
The S&P500 and FTSE100 stock indexes – which most people’s pension funds or savings are exposed to – contains several ‘defence’ companies, such as Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems respectively. Both of these companies facilitate Israel’s ongoing genocide in Palestine.
And capitalists like Michael Burry, who famously made hundreds of millions of dollars ‘shorting’ the housing market in 2007 and 2008, were quite literally profiting from a catastrophic recession which pushed millions of people into poverty – and, by extension, into early graves.
“It’s rules for thee and not for me”
Last week, a US Army soldier got arrested for ‘insider trading’ on Polymarket
But for the past 15 years, congress has freely traded stocks they oversee with no investigations, no accountability, and no change pic.twitter.com/vCcFa3Wvem
— Chris Josephs (@Chrisjjosephs) April 27, 2026
Whilst a section of capitalists may claim to be playing by the rules of ‘democratic’ morality and justice, their entire system has been built upon exploitation, destruction, and misery since the beginning.
Polymarket, at its core, is just a new way of stealing, and an extension of the swindling which has always been baked into capitalism and the profit motive.
Perhaps the main difference is that today, the hubristic parasites in Trump’s coterie – and the rest of the degenerate billionaire class – can’t even be bothered to cover up or excuse their cynical self-enrichment. It is open for all to see.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are effectively betting platforms, but they are not themselves the counterparties who are bet against. They are not the “house” in a casino. Instead, Polymarket acts as an exchange that connects the buyers and the sellers – i.e. those who bet ‘yes’ and those who bet ‘no’ – and it creates a market between them.
This is not a new invention. Polymarket simplifies what the financial system has named ‘options trading’ into binary ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts, which can be more easily understood by ordinary people.
In the options market, traders bet on the prices of certain things being higher or lower at a future date. But by replacing more complex options positions like ‘asks’ and ‘calls’ with ‘yes’ or ‘no’, it lowers the perceived barriers to entry.
Since ‘yes’ or ‘no’ is easily understood by virtually all participants, they might erroneously believe they have an edge over the market, and are therefore encouraged to gamble and risk more.
Polymarket claims it is a fair and free market, and not a form of online gambling, but the latter is exactly what it is. Like the financial markets, it is a zero-sum game: one can only win what has been put into the market; someone must be on the losing end.
The average participant is at a huge disadvantage when trading against insiders and automated algorithms. Polymarket, meanwhile, takes a cut of every successful trade, profiting regardless of the outcome.
Additionally, given the small number of buyers and sellers in many of the markets, the resulting ‘thin liquidity’ allows for heavy manipulation: by insiders who can directly impact the odds of events; but also by sophisticated AI trading bots, which humans cannot compete with.
Growth of gambling amongst the youth
And yet the popularity of prediction markets and other gambling platforms has only increased in the last few years – particularly amongst a section of young people, who are increasingly attempting to gamble their way to financial security.
Prediction markets are taking an increasing slice of the pie of traditional sports betting – which itself is growing in popularity since the COVID crisis – along with other forms of financial speculation and online gambling.
The cost-of-living crisis has also resulted in a rise of ordinary people attempting to supplement their already low income with gambling, or with online trading platforms, which have increased accessibility to these products.
In the UK, 40 percent of new retail investors in early 2025 were under the age of 35 – the demographic most impacted by the cost-of-living crisis and high unemployment.
It is because capitalism can no longer offer enough opportunities for ordinary people to provide for themselves and their loved ones that we are seeing a significant rise in such desperate and risky behaviour from young people.
Polymarket cynically feeds into this desperation by luring more people into financial oblivion, whilst enriching themselves and their investors in the process.
Given the depth of the crisis, and the lack of stable jobs and career prospects, who can blame ordinary people for turning to gambling and other extreme measures to get by?
But ultimately no one except from the capitalists can win under this system. This whole corrupt casino must be razed to the ground.
