In what has been described as “a referendum on oil and gas”, the new Tory MP Douglas Lamsden beat the Scottish National Party (SNP) candidate by over 6,000 votes in the Aberdeen South by-election.
In his victory speech, Lamsden said “the people of Aberdeen have given a resounding answer that we back the oil and gas industry” – an industry which provides tens of thousands of jobs in the area.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch – sensing an opportunity to salvage some of the dying party’s credibility, and likely struggling for things to do – visited the constituency three times during the campaign.
In third place, Reform got 12,000 less votes than the Tories, despite also having a very pro-oil stance. Whilst the success of Farage’s party is likely far from over in Scotland, they’ve not quite built up the same base as they have in England and Wales.
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Reform has also had a particularly challenging time these past few weeks, since Reform MSP Thomas Kerr’s encouraged the “protests” (read: pogroms) in Glasgow, and appeared to laugh at the anti-Muslim attacks in Edinburgh.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats were unsurprisingly barely in the running in Aberdeen, whilst the Greens – despite recent success in Holyrood – were unlikely to do well in an election where oil was such an important topic.
The Tories were also helped by the low turnout of only 38 percent, likely driven by a lack of enthusiasm amongst the SNP’s traditional voter base.
As we’ve covered in previous articles, the SNP’s inability to offer solutions to poverty, unemployment, austerity, and all the other ills of capitalism has dampened their support. They’ve also been hit with some high-profile scandals including the jailing of ex-SNP Chief Executive Peter Murrell last week.
The oil question
Electoral apathy played a role, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. The SNP is still by far the most popular party in Scotland, and on the same evening the SNP won the Broughty Ferry by-election by a large margin.
In Aberdeen – sometimes referred to as ‘Europe’s oil capital’, with over 70,000 jobs depending on the sector in the region – it was the oil question which secured the Tories’ victory.
Since the 70s, the SNP has campaigned heavily on oil and gas, proudly claiming the North Sea resource to be “Scotland’s oil”.
However, in the last decade this traditional SNP tactic has been weakened by awareness and urgency over the climate crisis. This is partially reflected by the SNP’s previous coalition with the Scottish Greens, and their continued reliance on the Greens to rule as a minority government.
Their attempts to maintain a pro-oil message whilst appearing committed to tackling climate change have resulted in a political incoherence which satisfies nobody and creates more friction within the SNP.
Conservatives have won control of Aberdeen South from the SNP – the Tories’ first Scottish by-election gain since 1967.
Speaking in Aberdeen, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said her party’s victory there means they “have won [the] referendum on oil and gas”. pic.twitter.com/2qe0bYGnOH
— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 19, 2026
Standing out from this confusion, the Tories – despite introducing the infamous North Sea windfall tax in 2022 – were able to opportunistically present a bold, unequivocal pro-oil stance in this by-election.
In response to the Tories’ victory, Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said:
“The Aberdeen South result is a direct result of failed Labour policies on oil and gas, which have been an abject failure… The tin-eared approach to the concerns of workers, by letting go of one rope before we have hold of another, has been absolutely shameful. Unite will not accept a jobless transition. Until there is a credible plan for jobs the anti-North Sea policies must be consigned to the bin.”
The question of jobs cannot be ignored. But, unable to see beyond the limits of capitalism, Graham has hitched the interests of Unite’s members to the interests of the fossil fuel magnates and their lobbyists, who want to ramp up oil and gas production at the expense of the planet.
By failing to address the needs of energy workers on a real class basis, the labour movement has left an open goal for the opportunistic Tories.
Planned economy
In reality, none of the parties offer a solution to unemployment, energy security, or the climate crisis. Only by breaking from capitalism can any of those problems be solved.
Climate change needs to be tackled urgently. To do this, the oil and gas monopolies, along with the rest of the energy sector, must be expropriated and placed under control of workers and affected communities.
Oil majors hide the profits from their trading divisions by bundling them with those of other units. But our projections suggest that BP, Shell and Total may earn $15-20bn in pre-tax profit from trading this year https://t.co/m1Mv766ZXz
— The Economist (@TheEconomist) June 29, 2026
From here, the direction and pace of a green transition can be democratically decided by those who know best.
Many energy workers are in favour of being re-trained for renewables, but the £6 million gas transition training fund barely scratches the surface. Expropriated profits from the energy sector can be put into retraining workers whilst giving them a pay rise.
As part of a socialist planned economy, we can also expand and enhance public transport, recycling, and climate research, and create many new safe, unionised, stable jobs at the same time. The interests of workers wouldn’t have to be pitted against the needs of the planet.
Only through revolutionary change can a green energy transition be realised – without workers being thrown onto the scrapheap.
