The last
year has marked a huge turning point in the Irish economy and most
importantly a huge shift in the relations between the classes in
Ireland. While the Celtic Tiger had been on life support for a while,
2009 saw a huge crisis that has had massive economic consequences and
political change that will play out for a whole period. This year
represented a shift from one historical period to another; a whole new
perspective has opened up for Irish society, not just in the 26
counties, but increasingly across the whole island as the impact of the
capitalist crisis begins to be felt to its full extent in the north.
The
so called “credit crunch” represents a huge crisis of capitalism across
the whole of the world, but it has been most keenly felt in the smaller
and weaker economies, which are tied into the world market and are
dragged down by the coat tails of the likes of the US and the major
European powers. When things were going well in the world then Ireland
felt the benefits of being part of the EU on the one hand and
benefitted from inward investment from US and British companies keen to
have a toe hold inside the euro zone. The economy boomed, emigration
was reversed, meaning there were more people, more jobs and a big
demand for housing. The success of the Irish economy also benefitted
the north, although the 6 counties are still massively dependent on the
subvention from the British state.
But
once the economy went into freefall, the Irish economy was rapidly
exposed as a small trade dependent economy prone to a range of
problems. Ireland’s economy is small, we are a long way from the rest
of the euro zone, the cost of transport and reliance on exports means
that when trade collapsed after the crash Ireland was affected
severely. Likewise, the big drop in the value of the £ sterling meant
that the cost of goods and services relative to the north rose rapidly.
The outcome of this has been to choke off demand from shoppers and
companies north of the border and at the same time hundreds of
thousands of people have started travelling over the border to do their
shopping – particularly to Newry.
The
impact of the slump was sudden, property developers and building
companies involved in speculative building were left high and dry when
the banks called in their debts, while many companies dependent on
exports, the likes of Waterford Crystal for example went into
liquidation. The effect of these closures and all the short time
working has been dramatic and has been much worse than the headline
figures would suggest. Take Waterford for example, 300,000 visitors
every year went to the Crystal factory. The effect of the closure will
be felt far beyond the factory itself. No wonder the population of
Waterford were so determined to support the occupation of the plant.
Unemployment stands at almost 450,000, its no wonder that emigration
has started again.
As
you might imagine, as soon as there was wind of an economic crash the
bosses started to demand that the working class picked up the tab.
There was a huge wave of pay cuts in the private sector and throughout
the year there’s been a huge clamour from the rich and powerful for
attacks on the public sector workers. The press has led the way in this
with blatant attempts to try and create artificial divisions between
public and private sector workers. What they don’t acknowledge is the
fact that there are hundreds of thousands of families where one partner
works for the council and the other works in a local company. Or one
might be a teacher and one might work in a shop. The public and private
sector workers are not two separate species, on the contrary they are
one class and they have the same interests. The bosses know that they
would be powerless in the face of a united workers movement and they
are desperate to sow confusion and division. That is the basis of the
slogan “The workers united will never be defeated”, 2009 made that very
clear in Ireland.
The
effect of the government’s assault on worker’s living standards has
been dramatic. Not only was there a vicious budget in 2008, but then
there was the April emergency “slash and burn budget” midway through
the year and now we have had the wage cuts budget. On top of all that
we have the An Bord Snip report and the Nama legislation – to bail out
the speculators. It would seem that in 2009 the government has been
spending all its time bailing out the rich and pouring the pressure and
the cost of the crisis onto the workers. No doubt the Brians, Lenihan
and Cowen would argue that they were only after stabilising the economy
and dealing with the budget deficit in the only way that they can. But
the truth of the matter is that hundreds of thousands of workers saw
right through that in 2009.
As
we have pointed out on several occasions during the course of the year,
the Irish working class was immensely strengthened throughout the
Celtic Tiger years. Employment rose at a faster rate than the
population increased (as people came home) and the economy doubled in
size.. The working class was bigger and although the percentage of
workers in trade unions fell, the total numbers increased
significantly. There were some gains made during that time, when the
bosses could give some small reforms and the profits were rolling in.
But, it’s not so easy to turn the clock back in the real world. The
Irish working class gained in the boom years, we have a lot more to
lose now than we had in the past and the response to the assault from
the government has been dramatic.
While history will record the big demonstrations in February and November and the public sector strike on November 24th,
there have been a large number of disputes throughout the year,
Waterford Crystal was occupied for months, the workers had no choice
their backs were up against the wall. This occupation had a direct
effect in the north where under similar conditions the Belfast Visteon
plant was occupied, sparking occupations at Visteon plants in Britain.
Thomas Cook workers occupied the office in Grafton Street, before being
arrested and jailed when the Gards turned up at 6am in the morning.
Dublin Docks were on strike, the bus workers, civil servants, bin
workers and Galway council workers as well as the Electricians who
fought the attempt of sections of the electrical contractors to tear up
the REA.
But
the 200,000 strong demonstration against the levy in February
illustrated the extent of opposition among the working class, the
success of that demonstration should have been followed up by a one day
public strike on the 30th March, but at the last moment the
trade union leaders pulled the plug in favour of talks with the Fianna
Fáil ministers. The talks dragged on and on and then some more. There
was no progress and no shift in government policy. But why were the
trade union leaders surprised at that? “Social Partnership” was the
line of least resistance in the boom years. But now things have
completely changed. Any agreement that could be cobbled together under
these conditions would have more holes in it than a Swiss cheese. We
explained this throughout the whole of the year.. But still, even at
the last moment just before the budget in December where Lenihan was
after €1.3 billion in public sector wage cuts the leadership of ICTU
were standing outside the tomb of social partnership shouting after
Lazarus to come and join them.
The
depth of the crisis has had a huge impact politically with the FF/
Green Coalition in serious trouble in the polls. This was illustrated
dramatically in the county council and Euro elections where Fine Gael
the Labour Party made big gains. The shift to the left among the
working class was most dramatic in the Dublin Area, where the left took
control of three of the county councils and Joe Higgins was elected as
an MEP – although well behind the Labour candidate. Since June, the
situation has only got worse for Cowen and Lenihan, with their standing
in the polls reaching rock bottom. The effect of their trying to
implement cuts in the HSE was two defections from Sligo/Leitrim TDs
formally cutting their majority in the Dáil to zero. It’s most likely
that they will hang on in power for at least the short term, as
although Christmas is coming the turkeys are reluctant to vote
themselves into oblivion. Likewise the Greens who wrestled with their
programme of government with FF. They decided to ditch their principles
to stay in office, rather than force a general election where as the
county council elections demonstrated they would have been slaughtered.
However accidental factors can have an impact and any by elections
would be very hard battles for the FF. In fact it seems that they have
taken the view that they might as well be hung for a sheep as a goat
and have embarked on a no holds barred attack on the workers. They have
in practice got nothing left to lose, despite the suggestion from one
of the dissident FF TDs that they ought to cut and run in a snap
election as there are “thoroughbreds on the government benches”,
thoroughbred donkeys maybe.
The
Lisbon Treaty referendum should have provided an opportunity for the
government to achieve some sort of stability at least politically, but
as soon as the vote was over – and did the bourgeois not pull out all
the stops to reverse the result of the first vote? – normal service was
resumed. Cowen’s days are numbered, essentially the FF/ Green Coalition
are a lame duck government, or a lame duck with wilted greens as we
said at the time.
All
the while, Eamon Gilmore has been attempting to stay in with his Fine
Gael friends while trying to appear sympathetic to the pressure from
the working class. But, even though he was forced to support the
temporary nationalisation of the banks, he has fallen far short of
giving unequivocal support to the public sector workers. On the other
hand he has been attempting to “modernise” the party. It appears that
his apparent personal standing in the polls and the prospect of big
gains at a future election have given him a following within sections
of the party, but there is growing pressure which will be expressed
within the ranks of the party at a certain stage. The fact that the
Fine Gael have been tacking further to the right – reflecting their
class base means that any Fine Gael/Labour Coalition would come under
huge pressures from the working class and the bosses.
The
chances are that a Fine Gael/ Labour Coalition will come into power
amidst an ongoing financial crisis. The contradictory pressures on the
government will mean that the Labour ministers would come under
increasing pressure and there would be demands to break the coalition.
We are quite clear; Labour should fight for a majority in the Dáil.
There should be no coalition with the bosses parties.
2009
revealed the class nature of Irish society in stark terms. But it also
revealed the deep crisis at the heart of the Catholic Church. The Ryan
and Murphy reports illustrate the extent to which the church and the
state apparatus hid and colluded with known paedophile clergy.. The
extent of the revelations illustrates the rottenness of Irish
Capitalist society and the state itself. The gulf between the public
face and the private reality of one of Ireland’s central institutions
is huge and the implications of these reports will ring in their ears
for decades.
All
in all it’s been a stormy year economic turmoil, floods and political
meltdown south of the border. But there has also a developing crisis in
the north. Stormont is at an impasse and there has been a small
resurgence of the so called armed struggle. This reflects the political
cul-de-sac in the north with SF and the DUP administering what is
essentially a county council with knobs on. At the time of the original
Good Friday Agreement, we explained that despite the war weariness and
the failure of the armed struggle, the same underlying social and
economic conditions pertained. Sooner or later, the contradictions in
the SF position would become apparent. Far from offering a socialist
solution to the problems of working class Catholics, SF have been
forced into a sectarian blind alley. The CIRA and RIRA attacks earlier
this year generated widespread opposition, and it is unlikely that they
have sufficient support to be more than an irritant to the British.
However lack of progress politically has resulted in a crisis within SF
leading to a number of councillors defecting on either side of the
border. Likewise, the DUP has suffered splits with the development of
Traditional Unionist Voice, and the Official Unionists are now even
more closely tied in to the British Tories than ever before. All of the
parties are affected by the political impasse.
The
crisis within SF reflects also the economic crisis which has now struck
the north with a vengeance. It is likely that the north will see some
big industrial battles as the cuts begin to bite. It is significant
however that the IRSP have taken the decision to base themselves
exclusively on a political programme and end the armed struggle, it is
yet more significant that sections of the IRSP are looking towards
revolutionary Marxism as an alternative to a reformist programme or the
narrow petit bourgeois nationalism with socialist window dressing of
SF. The north is at the crossroads, all of the old pressures are
building up, but there is a huge vacuum. Workers, whether Catholic or
Protestant are facing hard times, neither SF nor the DUP can solve
their problems. Only a mass socialist alternative, uniting Catholic and
Protestant workers on a class basis can offer a way out of the impasse.
2009
is drawing to an end, but it’s unlikely that there will be much time
for peace and tranquillity next year. Ten of thousands of families will
go short this Christmas and many thousands more will be worrying about
the future. The ongoing capitalist crisis and the political crisis in
Ireland that has resulted in unparalleled austerity measures being
piled onto the working class mean that workers have little option but
to struggle to defend themselves and their families. If anything the
mood has become harder during the year, the votes in favour of the
public sector strike on 24th November were enormous, weighing in at 80
– 90% in favour in most unions. The strike was solid, but again the
ICTU leaders sought the line of least resistance. They sought further
talks even offering 2 weeks of unpaid leave. The government immediately
turned this down apparently on the back of great opposition from the FF
back benches. The truth is that the FF backbenchers represent the worst
representative of the petit bourgeois in Ireland. For sure the events
of early December represent a quickening of the pace and an escalation
of the situation. The next period will see big struggles and battles in
the 26 counties.
Doubtless
many active workers will be concerned at the lack of leadership from
the likes of Eamon Gilmore and the ICTU leaders. A minority will be
looking towards the ideas of socialism and Marxism to provide a
solution. We will play our small role at this stage, attempting to
analyse events from a Marxist viewpoint and laying the basis for a
genuine Marxist tendency throughout the whole island of Ireland.
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