Drunk with success in Venezuela, Trump thought that the same methods could be used to force Iran to submit. Either a threatening naval force encircling the country would lead to capitulation, or a short sharp decapitation strike would produce regime change through the emergence of a new leadership willing to comply with imperialists’ demands (a ‘Delcy in Teheran’ as some put it).
That was a very serious miscalculation. Trump probably believed his own boasts, despite warnings from military planners. “Why have they not capitulated?” he wondered, before launching a wave of destruction on Iran.
[Originally published on marxist.com on Thursday 5 March]
In his speech on Saturday, he predicted a three-day war, in which the Iranian top leadership would be eliminated, leading to sections of the regime agreeing to comply with US imperialism. Failing that, a popular uprising would produce a pro-western regime.
The leadership was decapitated, but that did not lead to capitulation nor was there a popular uprising. Both things could have been predicted. The regime understands that this is an existential fight. They do not trust the US in negotiations – for good reason – and they had prepared for war. They had also prepared for a decapitation strike. A Decentralised Mosaic Defence protocol had been activated, giving wide operational autonomy to local units including to launch ballistic missile strikes, so that the military could continue to fight in case of partial or total loss of command and control capabilities.
The US and Israel have massive military power. They can pound Iran. They can cause massive damage. As well as killing the Supreme Leader and much of the rest of the country’s leadership, they have largely disabled air defence, they have struck some missile launchers, have severely damaged Iran’s navy, etc. But can they force Iran to submit? That’s a different matter.
Iran extracts a massive price
As it had forewarned, Iran decided to retaliate against targets in all of the region’s countries, particularly the Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, as well as Israel. They have struck both military installations (US bases and radars) and infrastructure (ports, airports), particularly in key economic areas (oil refineries, gas installations, data centres).
The aim is clear. Firstly, they intend to inflict maximum damage on these US allies to the point where they pressure Washington to end the attack on Iran, or even reconsider whether hosting US military bases on their soil is worth the cost.
These countries’ economies are based on stability and peace, which guarantees foreign investment, transport hubs, tourism and energy exports. All of that is now in danger. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a massive blow to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Dubai, UAE.
More than this, however, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is intended to extract a massive economic price from the Americans for their aggression. 25 percent of global seaborne oil is transported through the Strait as well as 20 percent of the world’s Liquefied Natural Gas. On top of this, Iran has struck the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant in Qatar, forcing its closure. The world’s largest oil refinery has been struck in Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, a complete shutdown of Iraqi oil production has commenced.
This is already having a big impact on oil and gas prices globally, while stocks are going down everywhere.
Asia is particularly impacted. Whereas China has stockpiled large amounts of oil and is largely energy independent, countries like South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are almost exclusively dependent on Middle Eastern oil. Stock prices on South Korea’s KOSPI are down more than 18 percent, including a record 12 percent one day drop on Tuesday.
But perhaps the biggest crisis of all looms for Europe. Gas prices in Europe have soared higher than at the time of the outbreak of the Ukraine war in February 2022. Europe’s benchmark gas price, the Dutch TTF, has almost doubled from a little over €30 per megawatt hour to over €60.
A war of attrition
After the initial shock, this has become a war of attrition between Iran’s missiles and drones and the United States’ interceptor systems. After the experience of last year’s 12-Day War, Iran is fully aware of this.
There is a limited supply of the very expensive missiles used in air defence systems, while Iran possesses a large number of missiles of different kinds and an almost limitless supply of very cheap fighter drones. A Shahed attack drone can cost as little as $20,000, while a Patriot missile has a price tag of over $4 million. This 1 to 200 disparity, leading one expert to make the point that it’s akin to “throwing Ferraris to stop bikes”.
Iran has not lost the ability to fire missiles but seems to be following a policy of conserving them, while firing massive amounts of drones which are much more difficult to intercept and are still capable of causing damage. Sometimes missiles are accompanied by a swarm of drones, overloading the ability of air defence systems to effectively acquire targets.
Already, Gulf states are complaining of stockpile depletion and are bitter that the US is not very forthcoming with replacements.
In the words of Suleiman Al-Aqili, a Saudi political analyst, in an interview with Al Jazeera: “America has abandoned us, and focused its defence systems on protecting Israel, leaving the Gulf states that host its military bases at the mercy of Iranian missiles and drones”.
That is precisely the point. By launching strikes on all the US’ allies at once, the Iranians are telling them: ‘look, the US cannot defend you.’
“The United States Munitions Stockpiles have, at the medium and upper medium grade, never been higher or better,” Trump angrily posted on Truth Social, “As was stated to me today, we have a virtually unlimited supply of these weapons.” That he feels that he has to make such outlandish claims tells you how worried he is. The facts contradict Trump’s boasting, and the US is even discussing relocating Patriot and THAAD systems from South Korea to the Middle East.
It is clear that, having failed to bring down the regime, that the Trump Administration is in disarray with no ‘off ramp’. This is the main reason for the messaging chaos by the Trump administration. One day this is a three-day campaign, the next it is a forever war; one day no troops on the ground; the next it is not ruled out; one day “they want to negotiate”, the next “we don’t want to talk to them”; one day Marco Rubio claims the US attacked because the Israelis were about to go it alone, the next day he denies he said any such thing; one day the operation is about regime change, the next it’s about degrading Iranian missile capability.
This is already a very unpopular war at home. 59 percent oppose it. It is now creating massive rifts within the MAGA coalition and base. That could be managed if it was a short campaign with a decisive victory. But this is ruled out.
One of the reasons Trump launched himself into this adventure was precisely to shore up his collapsing approval ratings at home. As it drags on and starts to impact the economy through higher energy prices, it will turn into a nightmare for him.
European impotence
The war has also revealed the impotence of European powers caught in pathetic disarray. They were not consulted nor informed. The Italian Defence Minister was even on holiday in Dubai at the time! Still, Trump has demanded their collaboration and the use of European military bases.
Starmer epitomises their predicament: first he refused to allow the use of UK bases using the excuse of the ‘legality’ of the attack, though with an eye on his electorate and his backbenchers. Then, within 24 hours, he flip-flopped completely. He now claims the UK is not involved in attacking Iran, but only in defending its allies in the region, which are being attacked by Iran. But surely Iran is retaliating only because the US-Israel have attacked it!
As previously mentioned, the war has had a massive impact on wholesale gas prices in Europe – a continent which largely cut itself off from cheap Russian gas imports, which represented 50 percent of its supply before 2022, and increased purchases of much more expensive US gas. Just as inflation seemed to be subsiding somewhat, a new shock has come which will be paid for by working-class families and will lead to renewed class struggle to defend the purchasing power of wages.
The position of Pedro Sanchez deserves a separate comment. He has emphatically refused to allow the use of jointly-run military bases in Spain for the attack on Iran, which has led to Trump threatening the “cutting of all trade with Spain”. There is a strong element of posturing in Sanchez’s stance. His government is weak and depends on a very precarious coalition of parties which give it inside and outside support. He knows US imperialism is extremely unpopular among his electorate.
The basis for his position is the same as that of his European partners. That is, he questions the legality or otherwise of the US attack. But it has to be said that he is the only one who has actually taken any concrete steps as a result.
We remain deeply skeptical of the practical implications of Sanchez’s defiance. His track record on Gaza is not good. First he said Spain was blocking weapons sales to Israel, then journalists discovered that it was just a question of not granting new export licences. Then, under massive pressure of public opinion, he declared an actual embargo on arms sales to Israel… but Spain remained the largest European importer of Israeli weapons, thus funding its genocidal war machine.
While Sanchez has barred the US from using its military bases in Spain for the attack on Iran, this decision only started on Saturday. The US was able to use the bases very effectively for the build-up prior to the attack. Was that legal under international law? Did Sanchez think they were just going to the Middle East for a stroll?
Now the Spanish government has announced that it will send military aid to the defence of Cyprus. In effect, Spain will therefore be a part of the imperialist military aggression against Iran.
The Kurds
Washington is scrambling to cobble together a follow up strategy after the failure of its initial salvo. There are growing rumours of a Kurdish armed incursion into Iran. There is undoubtedly a strong element of wishful thinking and boasting in this. However, Mossad, and more recently the CIA and Trump, have been trying to push for an extension of the war in this direction.
This week, a new alliance of six Iranian Kurdish groups operating from Iran announced they were uniting and called upon for defections from the Iranian military. Meanwhile, Trump himself had a call with the right-wing Iraqi Kurdish leaders Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani in the Kurdish region in Iraq to try and convince them to enter the war.
Despite being loyal stooges of US imperialism, they proved less than eager, and it’s easy to guess why. The Iranians have already bombed Erbil, and they would soon become targets not just of Iran, but of Iranian-aligned militias inside Iraq, and of the Turkish government which is extremely hostile to any Kurdish separatism.
It is true that if there is any part of Iran where an armed uprising against the regime is more likely, then that is in the Kurdish areas. Since 2018, during the repeated uprisings against the Iranian regime, the Kurdish areas have been at the forefront. In many instances, armed Kurdish groups even succeeded in temporarily expelling the forces of the Islamic Republic.
However, the Kurdish masses always denied the accusations by the Islamic Republic that they had separatist intentions. The advanced workers and youth had a healthy instinct that the movements’ strengths depended upon their unity with their brothers and sisters across Iran who were for the downfall of the regime.
It is clear, however, that Mossad has been fostering connections with armed groups, which are allowing themselves to be manipulated by US-Israeli imperialism.
Whether all this will lead to something or not remains to be seen, but already two observations can be made.
The first is that the Kurds should not trust US imperialism. In 1991, during the first Gulf War, George Bush Sr. called on the Kurds [and the Shia Marsh Arabs] to rise up against Saddam Hussein. When they did, the US abandoned them and allowed them to be massacred. Tens of thousands were killed. More recently, Washington betrayed the Rojava Kurds after they were no longer useful. The lessons are clear. The rights of oppressed nations are just small change in the machinations of the big powers.
The second is that the end goal of the United States does not completely coincide with that of Israel. The US wants a compliant regime in Tehran. The methods Trump used to subjugate Venezuela were supposed to be based on lessons learnt from regime change in Iraq and Libya. In Iran they may be slipping into precisely the scenario they wanted to avoid.
Fomenting a Kurdish armed insurgency may lead to a very messy break-up of the country and its descent into a Libyan-type nightmare. This would suit Israel, however, which wants the destruction and dismemberment of Iran and any other country in the region which can counter-balance its power.
We need to be clear. Never have freedom or democracy been ushered in on the back of US military aggression.
Recklessness
Like a gambler, Trump is throwing good money after bad, in the desperate bid to recoup the situation. He is creating an even more catastrophic situation in which the interests of US imperialism will suffer a devastating blow.
The massive bombardment of Tehran has strengthened support for the regime. The killing of Khamenei has turned him into a martyr, while opening the door to a successor who may actually wish to develop nuclear weapons. The reckless manipulation of the Kurdish question threatens to draw in Turkey, while plunging Iraq into a new civil war.
Protests bordering on insurrection have erupted in Bahrain. US embassies are having to close across the whole region. And the whole world economy is being pushed into a tailspin.
For what?
It is transparent for millions that this is about imperialist domination. In the minds of large numbers of people, this is being connected to the Epstein scandal. We are ruled by a class of billionaires, the ‘Epstein class’, who have no compunction about committing any atrocity against ordinary people at home or abroad. This is preparing the disintegration of the MAGA movement and a massive shift to the left in the US and far beyond.
Trump’s bold gamble in attacking Iran may prove to be a key factor in the unravelling of his whole presidency.
It has never been easier to make the argument that we must organise to overthrow the billionaire class and their imperialist capitalist system in order that mankind might live in peace anywhere on this planet.
We say: hands off Iran! Down with US-Israel imperialism!
