Less than a month after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) that seemingly ended the war between the US and Iran, hostilities have recommenced. This time, US imperialism is dragging the whole world towards a precipice.
The agreement has seemed to teeter on the brink of collapse from day one. Netanyahu systematically attempted to bring the agreement down through provocations in Lebanon. But in the end, Trump himself collapsed it.
The latest pattern of escalation began on 7 July. Iranian drones allegedly hit three vessels travelling through the Omani rather than the Iranian route through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians claim that even those travelling through the Omani route must gain Iranian approval to transit.
The Americans took a contrary view, and responded by reimposing sanctions on Iranian oil and by bombing Iranian naval vessels. The Iranians responded by hitting American bases and headquarters in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. And, in turn, the Americans have hit targets all over Iran, including IRGC targets, ballistic missile targets, and infrastructure including, provocatively, the bridge from Mashad on the day that Ali Khamenei’s remains were laid to rest in that city.
Trump lashed out at the Iranians as “scum” and “sick people”. The ceasefire is over, the war is back on.
Trump’s madness
The US agreed to the MOU because it failed to win the war by military or economic pressure. It was, in effect, a capitulation to all of the Iranian demands. It was the best the US could hope for, and the only way the Strait of Hormuz could be opened.
The US is in no position to win this war. It has depleted its air defence missiles and offensive missiles almost to exhaustion. Trump can fulminate, he can murder a few more IRGC commanders, he can destroy infrastructure. But once the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the whole world economy begins inching inexorably closer to the abyss, and there is nothing the Americans can do about it.
The Americans, being beaten, have no interest in resuming the war. And yet, here we are. Madness has seemingly prevailed.
But as we have said on a number of occasions, the American ruling class has been accustomed over decades to untrammelled global hegemony. Are they about to bow down and accept defeat, gracefully accepting Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian domination of the Persian Gulf, and all the rest? No.
Splits in Iran: the hardliners get it
Shortly after the MOU was signed, open splits emerged in the Iranian regime. Whilst explaining the terms of the deal on TV, speaker of the Iranian parliament and main negotiator Mohammad Ghalibaf was abruptly cut off by the broadcaster.
Hardline figures are openly denouncing the deal as betrayal. Even the Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is said to be sceptical of the deal. The degree and openness of the opposition from hardliners is remarkable but also quite understandable.
The price paid by Iran in order to wring the concessions from the US that are contained in the MOU was exceptionally high. More than 3,600 Iranians are dead, and more than 4,000 Lebanese have been killed. They estimated damage to property comes in at $270 billion.
That is devastating. But though the price paid was steep, Iran succeeded in bringing the world’s foremost superpower to its knees. By the end of the war, Trump himself was admitting that oil reserves would run out within a month. Some claims put US strategic reserves at their lowest levels since 1983.
The logic of the Iranian hardliners is this: we know who the Americans are. They do not negotiate in good faith. They see negotiations as a temporary maneuver before they revert to bullying. They always believe they are destined to win if they use enough force. They simply cannot be trusted.
So whilst they were forced to compromise for now, the neocons and Israel will be spitting blood. As soon as they’ve topped up their oil reserves and perhaps replenished their ammunition stocks, they will come back for more.
The conclusion can only be this: do not give them the opportunity. Deny them breathing space to replenish oil reserves. Crush them into the dirt. Make the US economy really suffer. Render it politically impossible for any administration to threaten Iran for decades to come.
US Vice President JD Vance basically confirmed that the hardliners were spot on in their assessment of the situation when he told one interviewer: “I think what the president wants to do is use this MoU to sort of refill the world’s oil economy, refill some stocks, and then to see where they end up,” adding that the US can now “bank our wins” and then “do things on top of that if the president feels that we have to.”
A terrible new phase of the war
The hardliners have been proven correct. Only by economically crushing the Americans can victory be assured. This faction is likely to be in the ascendancy.
There are lots of factors at play now. The logic of things, however, is that the next stage of the war could be even more devastating than the last. The bullet that the world economy just about dodged last time could find its target this time. The consequences could bring unspeakable suffering to hundreds of millions of the world’s poor.
The American situation will not improve. Faced with a truly desperate situation and intransigence from the Iranians, Trump could be given to all kinds of desperate forms of escalation. Realistically, the only way to force open the Strait of Hormuz is to occupy a whole section of the rugged Iranian coastline.
If Trump gambles on this scenario, the US Army could pay a grizzly price. Combined with the economic impact that looms, that would have profound implications for US imperialism when it comes to the mood on the home front.
Only the working class can stop US imperialism!
American imperial arrogance has already claimed thousands of lives in Iran and Lebanon. It now threatens millions more lives. Some will be taken in the most gruesome and direct way, like the little children slaughtered in Minab. Far more are now threatened with death through starvation, disease and poverty as a result of the economic chaos flowing from this war.
Even the Iranians understand that they cannot destroy the American war machine, which creates huge quantities of death machines every month. Rather, they understand it may become politically impossible at a certain point.
That is, that the American masses, and above all the working class, may intervene at a certain point to stop this war. In fact, the working class, and especially the American working class, is the only force in the world that can put an end to US imperialism.
American imperialism is in decline. This war is proof of that. But even a starving, injured predator can be dangerous. In fact, usually they are the most dangerous. The delusional leaders of the US empire would rather drag the whole world into barbarism than accept the inevitability of that decline.
We see that in Venezuela, in Cuba, in Iran and the whole Middle East, and tomorrow in the whole world. If humanity is to live, US imperialism must die, world capitalism must die.
This article was originally posted on Marxist.com on 10 July
