Compared to other events over the past week – from the explosive student movement breaking out on either side of the Atlantic, to the ongoing genocidal massacre in Gaza, to the political drama unfolding in Scotland – yesterday’s local elections across England and Wales seem a relatively quaint affair.
Indeed, with none of the major political parties offering any alternative to austerity when it comes to bankrupt local councils, it is unsurprising to see such little enthusiasm or interest in these parochial contests amongst potential voters.
Nevertheless, with the Tories facing an almost full-house of defeats – from hundreds of council seats, to mayoral positions, to their seat in Blackpool South – this year’s election results could have greater ramifications than usual.
For Rishi Sunak, a prime minister living on borrowed time, they could prove to be the final nail in the coffin.
Heavy blow
Nobody at Tory HQ was anticipating success. For most Conservative candidates, it was a case of damage limitation, with many actively distancing themselves from the party’s toxic brand in their campaign material.
All the same, despite these dampened expectations, the results of yesterday’s elections still represent a humiliating blow for Sunak and the Tories.
At the time of writing, many councils are still counting up their votes. But early indicators paint a clear picture, confirming the heavy haemorrhaging of support that even the most optimistic Tories were predicting in advance.
Based on the results so far, forecasters estimate that the Tory Party could lose half the council seats it was defending this year, equating to a wipeout of around 500 losses.
Large swings away from the Tories have already translated into Labour gains in local authorities such as Thurrock, Hartlepool, and Redditch. And more are set to come.
Holding onto mayoralties in the Tees Valley (confirmed) and West Midlands (unconfirmed) is the best that the Conservatives can hope for at this point.
Blackpool beating
Rubbing salt in the wound for Sunak is his party’s devastating defeat in Blackpool South – the latest in a long list of by-election beatings that the Tories have endured in the lifetime of this parliament.
Labour’s win in Blackpool, involving a massive 26 percent vote swing from the Tories, represents the seventh seat that Starmer’s party has picked up from the Conservatives since the 2019 general election; and the eleventh by-election loss for the Tory Party in this same period.
The Blackpool South contest was called following the resignation of the constituency’s former Tory representative, Scott Benton, who was embroiled in a lobbying scandal involving undercover journalists pretending to be looking for a helping hand for the gambling industry.
Benton joins a veritable rogues’ gallery of disgraced Conservative MPs forced to stand down in recent years as a result of various crimes, abuses, and sleaze – a reflection of the putrid degeneration of the Tory Party, and of the stinking system they defend.
Tory rumblings
The only saving grace for Sunak was that the Tories did not score even lower in Blackpool, with the ultra-reactionary Reform UK coming a narrow third, just 117 votes behind the Conservative Party.
This marks a worrying omen for the PM, however, demonstrating the continuing threat that he and the Tories face to their right.
The Tory leader has spent considerable energy in recent weeks trying to shore up support from this flank of his party, throwing all manner of red meat in their direction: from pledges to see planes full of asylum-seekers heading to Rwanda by the summer; to promises for greater military spending.
Workers, the oppressed, and the vulnerable, meanwhile, are deemed acceptable collateral damage in this rumbling Tory civil war.
Home Office coaches are rounding up migrants, ready for deportation, as the ‘hostile environment’ gets more hostile. And crumbling schools and hospitals are set to be further starved of resources, as public funding gets diverted into the pockets of profiteering arms manufacturers.
💥 WELL DONE PECKHAM! Hundreds of us gathered in resistance today and stopped our neighbours from being taken against their will to the Bibby Stockholm. Peckham shut it down ✊✊✊
🧵 pic.twitter.com/NQHPFHQ16Y— #BlackLivesMatterUK (@ukblm) May 2, 2024
This is the price that we must pay as Rishi Sunak seeks to cling to power: appeasing the rabid, rebellious Tory ranks, and manufacturing distractions to divert attention from his floundering regime.
For now, it seems that a full-scale mutiny against Sunak has been subdued. Tory backbenchers, fearful of the hammering they are likely to face at the next general election, aren’t happy about their party’s sorry state. But at this stage in the game, what choice do they have?
Despite all their criticisms of their current hapless leader, nobody in the Tory Party really believes that there is a safer pair of hands to take the helm. They’re damned if they do, damned if they don’t.
No trust in Starmer
Keir Starmer was in Blackpool today, applauding Labour’s latest “seismic” by-election victory. And no doubt further celebrations will be taking place as the party scores expected wins in the London mayoral elections and other councils.
But whilst these results are clearly catastrophic for the Tories, they don’t demonstrate any real excitement for Starmer’s Labour either.
In Oldham, for example, the party lost control of the council, with a number of independent candidates taking seats off Labour, as voters in the area – with its large Muslim and Asian population – protested over Palestine.
A similar process also played out in Blackburn, albeit with Labour retaining a narrow majority. And a loss of support amongst Muslim voters in Birmingham might have cost the party a potential victory in the West Midlands mayoral election.
This confirms Labour’s fears that George Galloway’s Rochdale victory was not a one-off, but could easily be repeated in a number of places across the country come a general election.
Similarly, in South Tyneside, nine independents gained seats at Labour’s expense, with voters punishing incumbent councillors for their failure to address local issues such as bins.
This is a harbinger of future troubles for Starmer and the Labour Party. In power, there will be nowhere to hide, as the crisis of British capitalism deepens.
The Labour leaders will have to bear full responsibility for the cuts that are killing councils and communities. And they will be rightly strung up for their complicity in the genocide taking place in Gaza.
Already this week, there have been murmurs of discontent emanating from the trade unions, as Labour waters down its programme on workers’ rights, under orders from big business – the latest broken promise from Starmer.
This all underlines why workers must have no trust in Starmer’s Labour. They are simply Tories in disguise.
Communist banner
Britain is now set for another summer of instability.
From the continuing crisis in the Middle East; to the slow-motion implosion of the Tory Party; to the challenges an incoming SNP leader and Scottish First Minister will face in maintaining a viable government in Holyrood: volatility and uncertainty is pregnant in the entire situation.
Whoever ends up in power – whether it be in Number 10 in Westminster, or Bute House in Edinburgh – will inherit a poisoned chalice: presiding over a system in terminal decline, with no respite in sight.
The Marxists, meanwhile, will be on the march.
We are launching the Revolutionary Communist Party in Britain this weekend, followed by the Revolutionary Communist International next month.
And we will be throwing ourselves into the student protests, strikes, and struggles erupting to the surface everywhere: channelling anger into action; campaigning for clear communist demands; and raising a bright, bold banner under which to rally the most determined class fighters.
We call on revolutionary workers and youth to join us in this task.
