Little more than a year ago, establishment-man Rishi Sunak was crowned head of the Conservative government. The ruling class breathed a collective sigh of relief.
“At last,” they thought to themselves, “someone with their head screwed on can unite the fractious Tory Party, put all this scrapping and drama to one side, and allow us to enjoy a nice bit of peace and stability”.
It didn’t take long for these rosy illusions to unravel.
Sunak was able to put a cork on the bubbling Tory crisis for a time. But the pressure from the rabid right wing of the party has long been building. The latest rumblings were first felt with the sacking of headbanger home secretary Suella Braverman last month.
And with the messy row over migration again spilling over into the headlines, the cork has been sent whizzing over the No. 10 garden wall, as one BBC journalist put it.
Or, in the less embellished words of former Tory chancellor George Osborne: “The Tory civil wars have completely reopened”.
Rwanda scheme
In the past week, opposing wings of the Tory Party have locked horns over the government’s attempts to implement the ‘Rwanda scheme’.
This hare-brained plan – cooked up under Johnson’s premiership – aims to deter asylum-seekers from crossing the Channel to Britain, by threatening to deport them to a country 4,000 miles away.
The policy would achieve very little in terms of curbing ‘illegal’ immigration. Despite over £290 million being squandered on it already, and not a single asylum-seeker yet being sent to Rwanda, the scheme only has the capacity to process a few hundred migrants.
But the Rwanda plan – along with other ‘hostile environment’ policies, such as the deadly Bibby Stockholm asylum-seeker barge – has become the perfect rallying cry for the Tory culture warriors, who are keen to shore up the party’s popularity among their rabid base by flexing their migrant-bashing credentials.
And crucially for Sunak, the policy has become a shibboleth for the Tory right wing – an article of faith that none dare violate.
One small issue…
But last month, the Supreme Court thwarted these plans, on the grounds that they would go against a whole host of international and domestic human rights legislation, including the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
Desperate to save face and placate the foaming ranks on his right flank, Sunak moved heaven and earth to push through a viable plan.
In an unprecedented move, the PM presented a bill to Parliament that will, if implemented, allow the government to ride roughshod over the Supreme Court’s decision, and ignore a raft of human rights legislation.
For the moderate wing of the Tories – representing the establishment and the more sober wing of the capitalist class – this is hair-raising stuff.
Not only does Sunak’s ‘Rwanda bill’ risk damaging the UK’s reputation (or what’s left of it anyway) on the world stage, but it also flies in the face of the constitutional ‘separation of powers’ – a sacred cow for the liberal establishment.
Just like his old friend Boris Johnson, who unlawfully suspended Parliament to force through his Brexit deal, Sunak has brought his government on a collision course with the courts – a key pillar of the bourgeois state – in pursuit of short-term political expediency.
As the French say, ‘Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose’: the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Gloves are off
But even this was not enough to sate the ‘swivel-eyed loons’ on the right wing of the party, who are demanding that the UK leave the EHRC altogether, and ‘stop the boats’ at all costs.
The surprise resignation of Robert Jenrick as the Minister for Immigration – on the grounds that the bill “does not go far enough” – was the opening shot in this internecine struggle.
In the run-up to last night’s vote in the House of Commons, a number of no-confidence letters were fired off. There were even rumours of a right-wing rebellion.
At the eleventh hour, the right knuckled under, and Sunak’s bill won the day. But this will provide little solace for the PM. The gloves are off, and any remaining hope that Rishi Sunak can lead a united Tory Party has been shattered.
And just like his ill-fated predecessor Theresa May, the Tory leader is haplessly trying to keep two warring factions happy. Too hard for the softs, and too soft for the hards, the ground is beginning to open up beneath a sorry-looking Sunak, and the chasm threatens to swallow up the entire party.
Cutting immigration
This bust-up over ‘illegal’ immigration comes alongside the PM’s recent pledges to drastically cut legal immigration too.
Despite the Tories’ reactionary culture war, and a decade of odious ‘hostile environment’ policies, net immigration has actually soared in recent years – much to the dismay of the Tory’s frothing supporters.
Keen to shore up his lagging support among the Tory base, Sunak has announced a series of policies aimed at halving net migration.
These extreme proposals include preventing certain overseas workers and students from bringing dependents to the UK, and raising the salary threshold needed to attain a work visa from £26,200 to £38,700.
Evidently, this has failed to keep the crazed Tory ranks at bay. But it has certainly enraged the bosses and industry leaders that the Conservatives are supposed to represent.
Various business groups have complained that these measures will exacerbate existing labour shortages, leading to higher wage-bills for the bosses.
According to the FT, for sectors like construction, manufacturing, and hospitality, “use of the visa system is likely to become impossible”.
Not only are the bosses losing out on their ability to exploit cheap migrant labour, but the NHS and social care sector will also be put under enormous strain. This, in turn, will put even more pressure on public finances.
As the head of the Recruitment and Employers Federation put it: “Once again, the interests of the economy [read: the capitalists] have taken second place to the internal politics of the Conservative Party.”
So not only has Sunak brought his government to loggerheads with the courts, the Treasury, and both wings of his own party, he is now alienating the capitalist class itself – all to save his own skin. So much for peace and stability!
Facing oblivion
The explanation for this chaos is quite simple: the Tories are hurtling towards electoral oblivion in next year’s general election. Hundreds of Conservative MPs are at risk of losing their seats.
With Sunak’s approval ratings falling to their lowest in his entire premiership, his MPs are starting to get shifty, and are desperately looking for salvation.
“I have heard people say anyone would be better than him,” said one former Tory minister. “He’s in personal peril. If people think that they are heading for sure-fire defeat – and are being led by a loser – they might as well go down fighting.”
With nothing but demagogy and culture wars to offer – and with Farage’s Reform Party looming over their right shoulder – who knows how far the Tories will lurch to the right once the inmates are back in charge of the madhouse.
Former PM David Cameron – the man who set the ball rolling on Brexit, and who was recently reintroduced to the Tory Cabinet by Sunak – knows where this story ends up: with the narrow, short-sighted demands of the Tory Party detonating dynamite under the foundations of British capitalism.
But just like the ill-fated Bourbons of the French ancien régime, the Tories have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.
Crisis of the regime
The reopening of the Tory civil war marks a deepening of the crisis for the modern-day regime in Britain. The establishment’s attempt at imposing Sunak and healing the party divide has proven fruitless.
The Conservative Party was once the reliable representative of the ruling class in Britain. Now it is stuffed with upstarts and cretins who place their own careers above the interests of British capitalism.
This degeneration is itself a reflection of the impasse of the capitalist system, and of the decline of British capitalism in particular, which is incapable of taking society forward.
The ruling class are now preparing for Starmer to take the helm. No doubt they are hoping Labour will provide a ‘safe pair of hands’ for the coming period of intense class struggle.
But ‘Sir’ Keir will prove just as much of a disappointment. His government will inherit the same dead-end system.
Only socialist revolution offers a way forward. And for that, we need a Revolutionary Communist Party.
