The prospect of a Syriza government
caused a wave of panic in the bourgeoisie of Greece and internationally.
They organized a massive campaign to drive people away from Syriza,
warning of economic catastrophe if they came to power. That was
sufficient to panic wide sections of the middle class, older people and
backward layers into voting for the New Democracy.
The prospect of a Syriza government
caused a wave of panic in the bourgeoisie of Greece and internationally.
They organized a massive campaign to drive people away from Syriza,
warning of economic catastrophe if they came to power. That was
sufficient to panic wide sections of the middle class, older people and
backward layers into voting for the New Democracy.
Greece
However,
the election result has solved nothing. The economic problems remain as
they were before. There is a very fragile and temporary calm in the
situation, which will not last long. The mood amongst the broad masses
is just as sceptical and pessimistic as it was before the elections.
Even among those who voted for the New Democracy few believe that
Samaras will achieve anything. This is not a very solid base from which
to launch a new series of attacks on the living standards of the Greek
people!
After three years of continuous fights and upheavals there must also
be an element of tiredness among the Greek masses. There may be a
temporary lull. But new upheavals are inevitable in the next period. In
reality, Tsipras was lucky he did not win the elections. A Syriza
government would have been immediately put under enormous pressure from
the bourgeoisie and the masses. But now Samaras will be responsible for
solving a crisis that on a capitalist basis cannot be solved.
The electoral support for New Democracy will soon begin to erode. In
opposition, Syriza will grow. This is already beginning to happen. There
are many reports of people who are trying to find Syriza in their areas
and beginning to organise themselves. These are especially the advanced
militants but also include thousands of young people, especially the
unemployed and students.
However, Syriza itself is still relatively small in terms of members.
Many of its cadres are imbued with reformist ideas, some are
ex-Stalinists and a fair number are old eurocommunist reformist
sceptics. The problem is aggravated by an influx of sectarians whose
only experience is of running around without doing any serious effort to
organise the members. These are serious obstacles to building a genuine
communist party. But the party will be built in any case, and the
masses will know how to overcome these problems.
Inside Syriza there are different tendencies: on the right as well as
the left. Tsipras himself stands on the left but his programme is
confused. And in a situation like this, confusion is very dangerous. The
Greek Marxists within Syriza have an important role to play in offering
clear ideas and perspectives to the party as a whole.
In the last elections Syriza won 52% of young people of 18-24 years.
That is a very important fact. This layer will play an important role in
transforming the party. In 1917 the Mensheviks accused the Bolsheviks
of being a “party of kids”, which was largely true. The membership of
the Bolshevik Party was very young. The Mensheviks were mainly older
trade unionists, inclined to reformism.
The main slogans of the Marxists must be: Get organized in Syriza!
For a revolutionary Syriza! Build the revolutionary Marxist tendency of
Syriza! On that basis a consistent Marxist policy can come to the fore.
We are confident of the superiority of Marxist ideas and programme, and
we are sure that over a period of time, on the basis of experience,
these ideas will become the ideas of the party as a whole.
A crisis of the regime
Trotsky explained that it is sudden and abrupt changes in the
situation that creates revolutionary consciousness in the masses. The
crisis is shaking the masses out of their apathy everywhere. There is a
growing ferment in society. A critical mood is developing and a
questioning of the system, which was not the case before.
The present crisis is rapidly exposing before the eyes of the masses
all the rottenness of the existing society and its institutions. One
layer after another of the Establishment is being summoned before the
judgement seat of public opinion and found guilty: bankers, politicians,
prime ministers and presidents, press barons and bishops. Those who
were respected and revered are despised or loathed.
The masses are looking for a way out of the crisis. This is reflected
on the electoral plane in violent swings to the left and to the right.
One after another, governments rise and fall. Every possible combination
is tried and fails, because on a capitalist basis there is no way out
of the impasse. Thus, over a period, politicians, parties, programmes
and ideas are put to the test. The masses gradually learn what lies
behind the hollow promises.
A mood of scepticism is beginning to develop, which places a question
mark over parliamentarism and politics in general. However, in Europe
illusions in parliamentarism are deeply rooted. The masses will not
easily abandon the organizations that they identify with. But every one
of these organizations will be put to the test. There will be a whole
series of crises, ferment and splits, with the rise of new political
formations, like Syriza, Die Linke and the Front de Gauche, out of the old.
Marxists must follow such developments attentively and be prepared to
intervene energetically to reach the most militant layers of the class
and the youth.
The next period will see a sharp polarization to the left and to the
right, as we already see in Greece and France. For reasons we have
explained many times, there is no possibility of fascist or Bonapartist
reaction in Europe in the immediate future. However, the rise of Golden
Dawn is a warning of what to expect if the working class fails to take
power in Greece. In the immediate future, the bourgeoisie is compelled
to rule through the mechanisms of bourgeois democracy. In reality, they
must lean for support on the tops of the trade unions and the Left
parties.
However, as the crisis becomes deeper, the bourgeoisie will decide
that there are too many strikes, too many demonstrations, too much
chaos. Then the slogan of Order will be advanced. Plots and conspiracies
will be hatched, like the Gladio Conspiracy in the 1970s. But long
before the question of Bonapartist reaction could be posed, the working
class will have had many opportunities to take power. A premature
attempt at a coup, for example in Greece, would provoke ferocious
resistance that could lead to a revolutionary upsurge.
It is true that the crisis is unfolding unevenly. That is always the
case. It unfolds faster and with greater intensity in the weaker
capitalist countries, like Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy,
while Germany and Austria lag behind, and Britain is somewhere in
between. But all countries will be dragged into the general crisis at
one time or another.
Everywhere we see the heavy burden of the past, which weighs like an
Alp on the consciousness of the masses and is particularly noticeable in
the leadership of the mass organizations. The reformist leaders of the
trade unions and the Left parties are living in the past. But even the
minds of the shop stewards and union activists are clouded by the
memories of past defeats. They are infected with moods of scepticism and
cynicism.
That is even more the case in the active layers of the Left Parties,
who were miseducated by Stalinism and reformism in the past and have no
confidence in the working class. It will take great events to revive
this layer, and many will simply drop out of politics altogether and be
replaced by a new generation that is not burdened by the memories of the
past.
In general, the weight of capitalist crisis falls most heavily on the
shoulders of the youth. In Spain half the youth are unemployed. In
Britain, Cameron wants to take away housing benefit from the under-25s,
etc. From the ranks of the youth the best fighters will come. They will
be attracted to the trade unions and the Left parties as a means of
changing society. That is what we must base ourselves on. In the words
of Lenin: He who has the youth has the future.
No way out
Some think that the sole aim of the ruling class is to save the
banks. That is too simple. There are contradictions between different
sections of the capitalist class, and the bankers represent only one
section. In Britain the weight of finance capital is very great because
of the destruction of British manufacturing industry. But even in
Britain the Tory-LibDem coalition has been forced to put pressure on the
banks, investigating the affairs of Barclays and RBS after the latest
interest rate fixing scandal. Cameron demanded the resignation of the
head of Barclays, while the timid Labour leader Miliband wants to see
him in jail.
In Germany, it is the industrial wing of the bourgeoisie that rules
the roost. They are putting pressure on the banks to pay up and accept
losses. In Spain, the shares of Bankia lost between 80-90% of their
value, even though the value of these shares was supposed to be
“guaranteed” by the state, and the government was in the hands of the
right-wing People’s Party.
On all sides we see insoluble contradictions. The demand is being
raised for Eurobonds. But somebody will have to underwrite these
hypothetical bonds. Who will that be? Why, Germany, of course! When the
debtor nations propose the establishment of Eurobonds, Merkel answers:
“not in my lifetime”.
The German Finance Minister says Greece has received more money than
Germany got from the Marshall Plan after World War Two. This is a lie.
After 1948, Germany received far more from the USA to pay off the vast
debts she had accumulated before and during the War. Yes, but that was
at a time when the USA held two thirds of the world’s gold in Fort Knox
and the capitalist world economy was in a tremendous upswing.
What is the position now? The world economy is in the deepest crisis
in history. The USA has a huge deficit – both externally and internally.
The biggest creditor nation in the world has become one of the biggest
debtors. And as for Germany, there is not enough money in the Bundesbank
to bail out Spain and Italy. The debts of Italy alone amount to almost
two trillion Euros.
Germany does not want to pay, but it cannot simply allow the Euro to
collapse. On the one hand, German (and American) banks hold large
amounts of Greek, Spanish and Italian debt. On the other, Germany
exports its goods to the Eurozone.
To the insistent demands for Eurobonds, Merkel replies: Certainly,
but we demand that all debts must be agreed by the EU (that is, by
Germany) before being presented to the national parliaments. We further
demand that the EU (that is, Germany) must have the right to interfere
with your budgets and veto unacceptable spending, etc. That is to say: Germany will only agree to underwrite your debts when you agree to hand over your national sovereignty to us.
With an astonishing mixture of cynicism and insolence, Cameron says:
We agree that there should be closer union of the Eurozone states to
save the Euro [and protect British interests] but we British will not be
part of it and will not pay a single penny to help you. However, what
Cameron says or does is of little consequence to Europe nowadays.
It is highly unlikely that France, Italy and Spain would agree to
sign away their independence to please Merkel and the Bundesbank. Even
if Hollande, Rajoy and Monti were to agree to it, it would have to go
before their national parliaments for ratification, and probably would
have to be put to referendums, which would take years and lead to
interminable arguments. However, the crisis of the Euro is taking place
right now and the markets will not wait until the cumbersome workings of
parliamentary democracy decide the issue.
Markets and investors are losing patience. There has been what can
only be described as a “slow motion” run on the banks in Greece and
Spain. That shows what the future holds. The European banks are poised
on the edge of an abyss. Sooner or later a big bank will fail, as
happened with the Kreditanstalt of Vienna, which
collapsed in May 1931. Such an event can be the trigger of a general
European banking crisis and a deep slump, which will have the most
serious consequences for the whole world economy.
Utopianism of the reformists
The reformists have no solution for the crisis. They have accepted
the capitalist system and all its workings. In their blindness they
believe that the cuts are the product of ignorance or “ideological
motivation”. Some have attempted to blame the rating agencies. This is
like blaming a thermometer for registering a fever. If you break the
thermometer, the fever will not go away. If you ban the rating agencies,
the markets will continue to operate just as before. And under
capitalism, how can one legislate to stop the bourgeois taking their
money out of dangerous or unprofitable markets and transferring it to
safer or more profitable ones?
Slogans like “tax the rich” can have a positive effect as agitation,
but they lack any scientific content. Hollande proposes to raise the tax
on high earners to 75%. This undoubtedly won him votes, but if he tries
to put it into practice, it will lead immediately to a massive outflow
of capital from France to Switzerland or even to Britain, where Cameron
says he will welcome it with open arms (this did nothing to improve
relations between Paris and London).
The problem with reformism (especially of the Left variety) is that,
by interfering with the market, without eliminating it, it makes it
impossible for capitalism to function normally. In the case of France,
if Hollande attempts to put his programme into practice, he will be met
with a massive strike of Capital that will force him to change course.
That is what happened to Mitterrand in the past. But the situation is
far worse now than in 1981 and Hollande’s volte face will be much faster
and more abrupt. This will cause a new explosion of the class struggle,
with a growth of the Front de Gauche and ferment in the ranks of the Socialist Party.
What is the problem? The working class has shown that it is willing
to respond to a bold call to action when it is made. But the leaders
have no confidence in the working class or in themselves. Even the best
of the Lefts are reluctant to go all the way. They are always looking
for some “clever” solution that will allow them to avoid a direct
conflict with the ruling class. But without such a confrontation no way
out is possible, and these “clever” slogans will only result in an even
worse crisis.
Tsipras has become very popular through projecting a left image and
opposing austerity. But his programme is completely utopian. He wants
Greece to stay in the eurozone, while rejecting the terms dictated by
Brussels and Berlin. The leaders of the KKE want Greece to return to the
drachma. But the first option is rejected by the bourgeois leaders of
the EU, while the second is a finished recipe for economic collapse. In
reality, there is no solution for Greek capitalism either inside or outside the euro. To argue anything else is to deceive the working class.
The idea that the solution is to refuse to pay the debt while remaining within capitalism
is typical of the utopian notions of the radical petty bourgeoisie.
Unless this slogan is linked to the expropriation of the bankers and
capitalists it would lead to economic collapse. This shows the limited
nature of the programme of Tsipras, who seems to believe that Greece can
avoid paying its debts to the German and French bankers and yet remain
in the Eurozone. This is utopian in the extreme. Greece would soon find
itself outside, not just the Eurozone but also outside the EU, cut off
from international money markets and unable to borrow money to pay wages
and pensions.
The only correct transitional slogan is for the nationalization of the banks without compensation.
These parasites have already had too much public money. Not a single
penny or cent for the bankers! Only by nationalising the banks and
insurance companies will it be possible to move towards a rationally
planned economy.
The expropriation of finance capital will provide many opportunities
to solve the problems facing society. However, the nationalisation of
the banks is, in itself, insufficient. Even if the entire banking system
were nationalised it would not end the anarchy of capitalism. It is
necessary to nationalise the big monopolies that dominate the economy,
under democratic workers’ control and management. The “commanding
heights” of the economy must be in the hands of the state, and the state
is in the hands of the working class. Only then will it be possible to
plan the productive forces in a rational and harmonious manner.
We must tell the truth to the working class of Greece: there is only has one option: to take power and then appeal to the workers of Europe to follow their example.
Down with the Europe of the Bankers and Capitalists! For the Socialist
United States of Europe! That is our slogan. If the Greek workers take
power into their hands, it would have an electric effect on the workers
of all Europe, beginning with Spain, Italy, Portugal and France. It
would have at least as big an impact as the Russian Revolution in 1917.
The whole situation would be transformed.
In countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy, the
budget deficit and the national debt are becoming key issues as the
ruling class is forced to implement massive austerity cuts. We demand an
immediate halt to any payments of interests on the national debt and
for a repudiation of the debt altogether (as opposed to the reformist
slogan of an audit). This would immediately raise the question of how
these governments would fund their spending. We answer: through the
expropriation without compensation of the whole of the banking and
insurance sector and its centralisation into one national state bank to
be used for the planning of the economy.
The nationalisation of the means of production, distribution and
exchange would allow these forces, which are left idle by the anarchy of
capitalism, to be used. In Spain the banks and cajas own
thousands of empty properties. At the same time, there is a large and
growing number of homeless people. We demand that the empty houses be
handed over to the homeless.
There are millions of unemployed (11% across the EU) and plenty of
social needs to be fulfilled. The immediate introduction of a 35-hour
week without loss of pay would enable us to mobilise the millions of
unemployed workers to build houses, schools, roads and hospitals to
satisfy the needs of society.
However, there is nothing magical about transitional demands, which, as Trotsky says, are not enough:
"Of course the sliding scale and workers’ self-defence are not
enough. These are only the first steps necessary to protect workers from
starvation and from the fascists’ knives. These are urgent and
necessary means of self-defence. But by themselves they will not resolve
the problem. The main task is to pave the way to for a better economic
system, for a more just, rational and decent use of the productive
forces in the interests of all the people.
“This can’t be achieved by ordinary, ‘normal’, routine methods of the
trade unions. You cannot disagree with this, for in the conditions of
capitalist decline insulated unions turn out to be incapable of halting
even the further deterioration of the workers’ conditions. More
decisive and deep-going methods are necessary. The bourgeoisie, which
owns the means of production and possesses state power, has brought the
entire economy to a state of total and hopeless disarray. It is
necessary to proclaim the bourgeoisie bankrupt and to transfer the
economy into fresh and honest hands, that is, into the hands of the
workers themselves." (Discussion with a CIO organiser, 29 September 1938, our emphasis)
These words of Trotsky express the essence of transitional slogans, which is that they point the way to the socialist revolution as the only way out.
The seriousness of the crisis is such that already in countries like
Greece many people – not just the advanced workers and youth – are
drawing revolutionary conclusions. We must hammer home to the advanced
workers and youth the need for the working class to take power.
It is hardly necessary to explain to people who have lost everything
that a fundamental change is necessary: not partial solutions or
“clever” slogans but the complete overthrow of the present system is
needed.
[End]
[Note: this document is a Supplement to Perspectives for world capitalism 2012 (Draft discussion document) – Part One (and subsequent parts) and should also be read together with On a Knife’s Edge: Perspectives for the world economy, A Socialist Alternative to the European Union and the The Crisis: Make the bosses pay! – Manifesto of the International Marxist Tendency]
