Greek capitalism is in a deep crisis.
It is the weak link in the chain and it is beginning to break. The
country risks defaulting on its debt repayments, posing a serious
threat to the stability of the euro. Severe austerity measures are
being imposed and these are provoking a working class backlash.
Greece is one of the weakest members of the euro-zone. It is heavily
burdened with debt and it has now reached the point where it risks
defaulting on its repayments. Things have dramatically changed in the
past two years. After a period of 16 years of economic growth, in 2009
the economy went into recession with a fall of 1.6% of GDP, and while
there are signs of recovery in other parts of Europe, Greece in 2010
will see more of the same with an expected contraction of the economy
of 1.6%.
Greece, like all other European countries, also had its credit boom,
followed by a banking crisis, with the government stepping in to save
the banks. But the Greek bailout pushed the budget deficit up massively
to 12.7% of GDP, more than four times what the eurozone rules allow
for. Its total debt now stands at about 300bn euros.
This economic situation is what eventually led to the calling of
early elections at the end of last year, which saw the New Democracy
being kicked out of office and the PASOK (Socialist Party) being
brought back in with a huge majority. By voting out the New Democracy
party, the Greek workers were making a clear political statement: we
have had enough of austerity measures!
very soon after being elected Papandreou, the PASOK prime minister,
announced drastic economic measures in an attempt to reduce the
deficit. He announced plans to cut 10% of the deficit, which would mean
draconian measures affecting all aspects of the welfare state, from
education, to healthcare, to pensions. But this was considered not
enough by the Greek bourgeois. The capitalist media launched a huge
campaign pressurising Papandreou to make even more severe cuts.
This posed the “socialist” prime minister with a big dilemma. What
he had announced was too much for the Greek workers, but not enough for
the Greek capitalists. He was attempting to walk a very thin line
between the two major classes in society. Now the pressure is piling up
even more, as the whole of the European Union looks on in trepidation
as the Greek crisis unravels.
The problem facing the major European powers, such as Germany and
France, is that Greece is not only part of the European Union, but also
a part of the eurozone. If Greece goes it pulls down all its eurozone
partners with it.
Unless Greece receives help from its EU partners it could default on
its debt repayments and this poses a major threat to the single
currency. Long gone are the days when the euro was presented as a
victory for European capitalism. At that time we explained the
contradictory pressures that existed within the EU, pressures that were
putting at risk the euro. Back in 2005 we pointed out that “Hans
Eichel, the German finance minister, and Axel Weber, the Bundesbank
president, had discussed the break-up of monetary union”. Similar
statements were being made by Italian ministers, who even suggested
going back to the Lira. In January 2001, nearly ten years ago, and
shortly before the setting up of the euro, Alan Woods and Ted Grant
wrote that, “In the end, it is probable that the Euro experiment will
break down amidst mutual recriminations. Already there are indications
of conflict between the states in the Euro zone, as each government
tries to protect its own capitalists against foreign competition.” (The Launch of the Euro – Towards European unity? 3 January 2001) When the Marxists explained this they were laughed at. How things have changed, and how quickly too!
In the period of the boom, all seemed rosy in the garden. The euro
was going to usher in a period of economic growth and stability… at
least that was if you believed the fairy tales of the EU gurus. What is
happening in Greece confirms what the Marxists explained at the time.
Of course, the euro is not going to collapse tomorrow morning. They
will do everything to stop this from happening, because the alternative
is even worse, but for how long can they hold out?
The media in the last few days has been full of rumours about
Germany preparing to organise a possible bail-out, supported by France
and other eurozone members… that can afford to do so. Countries like
Britain, of course, will not be part of the “rescue team” as they have
enough debts of their own to be taking on those of countries like
Greece!
The fact is that powerful economies like Germany cannot allow Greece
to sink, at least not so long as they have the resources to step in.
But they are facing a real dilemma. If they don’t step in and allow
Greece to sink, this will rip at the heart of the euro which will in
turn affect the whole of the eurozone and the EU as a whole. If they do
step in, as seems the most likely option from what is emerging from the
talks they are holding, then Germany and France and other countries
will become guarantors for Greece’s credit rating, i.e. they will take
on the burden of the debt.
This means that the German economy will add to its already serious
problems, and will have to tighten the screws at home, with more
austerity measures. During this crisis we have seen the state
intervening to save the banking system, for fear of an even worse
collapse of the whole economy. Now we are seeing small and weak states
like Greece (but also Spain and Italy – not so small – and Portugal)
having to be saved by the more powerful economies at the heart of the
EU. Who will save the big states when their time comes?
Here we see how everything can turn into opposite. The EU was a
mechanism by which powerful Germany could achieve what it did not
achieve in two world wars: the economic domination of Europe. Now it is
turning into a mechanism whereby all the economic ills of Europe are
being brought to bear on Germany.
For now Germany and France will be forced to step in and bailout
Greece. But for how long can this continue? The point will be reached
where this can no longer hold, and we will eventually see members of
the eurozone defaulting, possibly starting with Greece.
One thing that is guaranteed is that the Greek government will now
have to apply severe cuts in public spending. Papandreou, in Paris for
talks with Sarkozy, promised he would "take any necessary measures" to
reduce Greece’s deficit, and added that, "The stability programme will
be implemented in every measure."
All this has a logic from a purely capitalist economic point of
view. It is what is required to achieve economic stability. The problem
is that these same measures provoke political and social instability.
The trade unions are being forced to reflect the growing anger
coming from below. The Greek working class see the austerity programme
as a declaration of class war. And today we saw what the Greek workers
are capable of. The confederation that organizes the public sector
workers, ADEDY, together with PAME (the KKE faction in the GSEE,
general confederation of Greek workers) called a general strike.
Airports have been paralysed, many schools were closed and hospitals
have been operating only emergency services. There have been many
rallies across the country as thousands of angry Greek workers took to
the streets. In one incident police fired tear gas at refuse collectors
who tried to get through police cordons.
The crisis of capitalism is beginning to break the weakest links in
the system. Greece is one of these. This is bringing out clearly the
class differences in society and showing the Greek workers the real
nature of the system. It is having a radicalizing effect on the
thinking of thousands of workers and youth across the country.
In removing the hated New Democarcy government a few months ago, the
workers and youth of Greece voted massively for the left parties. If
one adds up the votes of the PASOK, the KKE (Communist Party) and
SYRIZA (the Synaspismos-led electoral front), the three mass workers’
parties of the Greek working class, we see that 56% voted to the left.
Now the PASOK leadership is going to be put to the test, and a very
bitter test it will be. Millions of Greek workers and youth will see in
practice that the party’s leaders do not have a programme to solve the
crisis that has hit Greece. This will have a radicalizing effect on the
workers who vote for the PASOK and will open contradictions within the
party, especially affecting the rank and file. Already, even before all
this happened, a significant layer (more than 12%) voted to the left of
the PASOK for the KKE (7.54%) and SYRIZA (4.6%). Within these two
parties there is already ferment as the impact of the crisis pushes the
social base of these two parties even further to the left.
A strong anti-capitalist mood has emerged in Greece, as even the BBC
and other mainstream news agencies could not avoid reporting on, which
indicates that a period of sharp class conflict is opening up in Greek
society. Greece, however, is not the exception; it is merely where the
crisis is most acute. It also indicates what the future of the whole of
Europe will be. What we are seeing in Greece today, we will see
tomorrow in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and later in all of the EU
including Germany and France.
The conditions are being prepared for intense class struggle across the whole of Europe in the coming period.
