Throughout Tuesday 18 March, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) launched barrages of bombs upon the people of Gaza, shattering the fragile ceasefire with a rain of death and destruction. Over 400 Palestinians were killed and more than 600 injured in the strikes, making it the single bloodiest day of Israel’s genocide since late 2023.
In typical fashion, Israel justified its latest bombardment by accusing Hamas of breaking the ceasefire agreement. But the facts reveal otherwise.
The ceasefire agreed in January envisioned three stages. The first phase, completed in February, saw Hamas return 33 hostages, in exchange for about 1,900 Palestinian ‘prisoners’ – in reality, hostages – held in Israeli jails. The second phase envisioned the total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, in exchange for the release of all remaining hostages, and the definitive end to hostilities. The third phase would deal with the return of dead bodies and the rebuilding of Gaza.
But, since stage one ended on 1 March, Israel has refused to proceed with stage two: the promised withdrawal of IDF troops from Gaza, in particular from the Philadelphi corridor along its border with Egypt. Not only this: Netanyahu then moved the goalposts of the agreement, by demanding Hamas immediately return all the remaining hostages, in return, not for an end to the war, but merely a 30- to 60-day truce. In other words, he made them an offer that they could only refuse.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu ordered the blocking of all aid shipments into Gaza at the beginning of March, and the cutting off of its last power line. Israeli officials are even now threatening to sever the little that is left of Gaza’s water supply. By doing so they made a mockery of the agreed ceasefire, by trying to starve the Palestinians into submission.
The silence of the liberal establishment on the resumption of the genocide once again reveals their complete hypocrisy. Where are their summits in response to these war crimes? Where are their plans to send ‘peacekeeping forces’ to protect the people of Palestine? Whereas they are willing to throw hundreds of billions of dollars into protecting ‘self-determination’ in Ukraine, Israel is their ally, and can therefore do what it likes.
Netanyahu’s bid for survival
With an end to the 17-month conflict seemingly within touching distance, why has Netanyahu now ripped up the ceasefire?
It’s worth remembering that at every stage of the conflict so far, Netanyahu resisted the agreement of a ceasefire with Hamas, finding all sorts of excuses to do so. It was only with the intervention of Trump at the beginning of January that Netanyahu was strong-armed into signing an agreement.
Netanyahu made clear from the outset, however, that he was opposed to the ‘second phase’ of the ceasefire. Whilst he could accept the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages, he could not accept the ending of the war. This is because his political survival depends on the conflict. Amir Tibon, writing in Haaretz on 25 January, already explained that “…the same Netanyahu who eventually signed the agreement has been telling his domestic political allies that he has no intention of honouring and implementing it.”
“Netanyahu has a personal interest that the war goes on”, explained Itamar Yaar, a former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council. “He doesn’t have any feeling of urgency to stop it.”
Even before 7 October 2023, Netanyahu was facing multiple crises. His position as prime minister was all that allowed him to defer prosecution on multiple charges of corruption. With his party declining in popularity, he was therefore increasingly forced to rely on far-right Zionist fanatics to prop up his fragile coalition government. His attempts to consolidate power through judicial reform sparked an enormous protest movement that threatened to topple his regime in the spring of 2023.
But so long as Israel was at war – at first against Hamas and the people of Gaza, and later also against Hezbollah in Lebanon – Netanyahu could attempt to distract from his problems at home, and try to rally Jewish Israelis behind him.
The signing of the ceasefire in January, however, presented a major problem for Netanyahu, as the far-right former national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir pulled his ‘ultranationalist’ Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party out of the government in protest. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to follow suit if the war were not resumed after the ceasefire’s ‘first phase’.
These fanatics want nothing less than the completion of the Zionist project: for the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population; and for Jewish settlers to take full control of Gaza and the West Bank. They view the war as a perfect opportunity to achieve their aims.
Netanyahu cannot afford to ignore Ben-Gvir or Smotrich, as the clock is ticking on his regime. If Netanyahu doesn’t pass an overdue budget for 2025 by 31 March, then his government will be automatically dissolved and forced to hold elections that he would likely lose.
Breaking the ceasefire thus allowed Netanyahu to re-strengthen his shaky coalition, in preparation for this crucial vote. As soon as Netanyahu ordered the resumption of the bombing of Gaza, Ben-Gvir announced that he was rejoining the government. But whilst this might temporarily strengthen Netanyahu’s coalition, the prolonging of the war will in fact compound Netanyahu’s problems in the long term.
The limits of Trump
The resumption of the conflict has revealed the limits of Trump’s diplomacy. Back in January, Trump delighted in the fact that he, through his agent Steve Witkoff, had forced Netanyahu into a ceasefire – where Biden had previously failed.
When the agreement started to unravel in February – with the Israelis seeking to amend the terms of the second stage – Trump intervened to increase the pressure on Hamas. He even took over the conduct of the negotiations with Hamas, sidelining the Israelis. Trump clearly calculated that with enough bluster and bullying, he could force Hamas to capitulate on the Israelis’ terms and get the deal back on track.
On 5 March, Trump threatened in a Truth Social post that the people of Gaza would be “dead” unless Hamas immediately released all the remaining hostages. “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.” “RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!” he thundered.
But from the point of view of Hamas, if they were to release all the hostages immediately – in exchange for only a short ‘truce’ – there would be absolutely nothing to limit the Israelis from unleashing (further) hell on them anyway. It is a demand that they cannot accept.
Trump thinks and acts like a billionaire Manhattan real-estate mogul, but one with the resources of the most powerful military in the world at his disposal. He thinks that with enough pressure and bluster, he can force his adversaries into a deal. But as he is painfully finding out, there are limits to what even he can achieve when confronted with social forces beyond his control.
In an ideal world, Trump wants to remove Hamas from Gaza, as he has made clear. As The Times of Israel stated clearly back in January, “US President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for national security adviser Mike Waltz says that Hamas must be destroyed and have no role at all in postwar Gaza.” Trump wants an end to the conflict so that he can refocus US imperialism’s resources on strengthening its ‘near abroad’, whilst taking on its main rival, China. But unlike with Ukraine, where he can abandon the war for the Europeans to pick up the pieces, there is no other force capable of filling America’s shoes with respect to Israel.
Hence all Trump could really do to Hamas was threaten to unleash the mad dogs of the IDF on them once again. Far from bringing stability to the region, the renewal of hostilities in Gaza will only intensify the already fraught situation in the Middle East.
Upping the ante
Meanwhile, Netanyahu has ramped up the oppression of the Palestinians in the West Bank, giving the green light for fanatical settlers to conduct pogroms with the backing of the IDF. Thousands of Palestinians in the West Bank have been displaced, while hundreds have been killed. This has further destabilised the West Bank, contributing to the growing anger in all the neighbouring Arab countries.
Netanyahu has, in fact, already thoroughly destabilised the region over the past year. By expanding the war into Lebanon in 2024, forcing Hezbollah to concentrate on their home front, he helped create the conditions for the fall of Assad in Syria. The pogroms carried out by the Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham regime since coming to power have already set in motion a logic of events that will likely see Syria return to the carnage of civil war.
And, clearly anticipating Netanyahu’s latest bombing of Gaza, Trump, with the connivance of Britain, launched a massive attack against the Houthis in Yemen on Saturday. Trump knew that the breaking of the ceasefire would compel the Houthis to restart their attacks on US-aligned shipping in the Red Sea, in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Trump, thinking he could restrain the Houthis by making threats, upped the ante by threatening Iran with “dire consequences” should the Houthis respond with force. The only result of this has been to increase the tensions between the USA and Iran, as the Houthis have already responded by firing missiles at Israel.
Netanyahu has sought all along to drag the United States into a war with Iran. Trump made it clear that he was pushing in the opposite direction in order to bring back some semblance of stability. But what he wants and what he gets are two very different scenarios. His attacks on the Houthis and the demands he is putting on the Iranian regime are designed to push negotiations in the direction of some deal, but he could end up further destabilising the whole situation.
Israel’s internal crisis
Netanyahu announced that the bombing of Gaza on Tuesday was “only the beginning”. Indeed, the IDF launched a renewed ground invasion the next day, reclaiming territory it had ceded under the terms of the ceasefire.
“The air force attack against Hamas terrorists was only the first step”, said Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz. He threatened Gaza with “complete destruction if all the Israeli hostages are not released and Hamas is not eliminated”. “Israel will act with force you have never known before”, he said in a statement.
Eliminating Hamas, however, is far easier said than done. Israel has tried its hardest over the previous 17 months to do precisely this. In the process, it has killed at least 48,000 people, destroyed 90 percent of Gaza’s homes, and reduced its infrastructure to rubble. Yet Hamas has not been defeated. It has proved incredibly resilient and has experienced an influx of new recruits and enduring popular support. According to Reuters, “Hamas has recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 members since the start of its war with Israel.”
Israel’s genocidal policy has enraged an entire population, which has nothing left to lose. Hamas has recruited a fresh layer of young fighters, who are desperate to avenge Israel’s crimes. This has been evident throughout the conflict: wherever IDF troops withdrew from Gaza, Hamas immediately took back control. Hamas therefore cannot simply be removed or ‘eliminated’ by force; it is intimately bound up with the resistance and livelihoods of the people of Gaza.
Prolonging the conflict will only intensify the crisis of the Israeli regime. The new IDF Chief of Staff Eval Zamir has indicated that the renewed ground offensive would require several IDF divisions. This would mean a new large-scale call-up of reservists.
Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Netanyahu, gave a glimpse of what such a new offensive would require from the IDF:
“Previously, we didn’t have enough forces to take control and to clear the areas [we took in Gaza]. We killed those who were there. But we retreated afterwards. Here we have to go for an operation in which we will remain for a longer time.”
But the mood in Israeli society, and in the IDF, is increasingly hostile to prolonging the war.
A number of recent polls have revealed just how unpopular the war – and Netanyahu – have become amongst a broad layer of Israelis. As an article in the liberal Israeli newspaper Haaretz summed up, for the “nearly one-half [of Israelis] who do not believe Israel can achieve its war aims, to the 60 percent who want Netanyahu to resign, to the 73 percent who prefer a complete end of the war and withdrawal from Gaza – is there any motivation left to fight?”
Haaretz noted how by mid-2024, the IDF was already experiencing falling response rates to its reservist call-ups. This worsened by the time of the ceasefire in January, and continued through March, by which time: “only about half of reservists have been reporting to many army units”.
This mood will only sour further, as more IDF troops return home killed or injured, and if (as is likely) more Israeli hostages die.
Indeed the issue of the return of the Israeli hostages has been one of the key questions within Israel throughout this conflict. But as the war has dragged on, and as more and more hostages have died, it has become increasingly clear that Netanyahu is more interested in prolonging the conflict for his own personal reasons than in saving the hostages’ lives.
For example, The Hostage and Missing Families Forum released a statement following Tuesday’s strikes, saying it was “shocked, angry and fearful” at the breaking of the ceasefire. It accused Netanyahu’s government of “deliberate disruption of the process to return our loved ones”, which could endanger their lives.
Likewise, Yair Golan, leader of the Labour Party in Israel, wrote on X: “The soldiers on the front lines and the hostages in Gaza are just cards in [Netanyahu’s] game of survival”.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu is facing an enormous backlash from his plans to dismiss Ronan Bar, the chief of the Shin Bet internal security service, as well as Gali Baharav-Miara, Israel’s attorney general; a fierce critic of him.
Shin Bet just so happened to be investigating three of Netanyahu’s advisers over allegations of receiving funds from Qatar, two of whom were then arrested by police this week. Bar was already in Netanyahu’s crosshairs, however, due to Shin Bet’s harsh criticism of Netanyahu in its investigation of security failures leading up to 7 October.
The sacking of Bar is therefore seen by many as simply another attempt by Netanyahu to purge the Israeli state of his detractors, thus reigniting the flames of Israel’s constitutional crisis. Some have even linked the timing of the latest bombardment of Gaza as a distraction for this move. Indeed, 40,000 people took to the streets in Tel Aviv on Thursday night to protest this latest sacking, whilst demonstrations erupted across other Israeli cities. Protestors railed against both Netanyahu’s ‘power grab’, and his resumption of the war.
No solution under capitalism
Back in January, there were enormous hopes that the hell inflicted on the people of Gaza would finally be relieved – even if only partially. These hopes have been cruelly shattered this week.
So long as Netanyahu clings to power, he has an interest in prolonging the conflict. In doing so, however, he is playing with fire – a fire that threatens to spread out of his control and engulf the entire region.
Whilst there is still strong support for Zionism within Israel, Netanyahu and his far-right allies are revealing in deeds that there is no real ‘security’ for Jews so long as the Palestinian people are oppressed. Their intensification of the war will not eliminate Hamas, nor will it achieve the release of the hostages. It will, however, intensify the crises within Israel, on the economic, social, and military fronts.
Elsewhere, as the death toll from the renewed siege and bombing of Gaza starts to rise, the anger of the Arab masses against the complicity of the regimes in Egypt and Jordan will only increase. It’s not inconceivable that at a certain point the tensions will snap, unleashing a new wave of Arab revolutions.
In the West, it is becoming all the more clear to millions that the imperialists have no solution to this crisis. In fact the complicity of Trump, Starmer, Macron, and the rest in supporting Israel’s genocide will only generate more disgust amongst workers and youth, the longer it drags on. The smiling mask of bourgeois democracy is being exposed for what it really is – a facade for the ruthless exploitation of the world’s workers and poor by a gang of billionaires, who will go to any lengths to defend their interests.
The Palestinians have a right to a homeland. But no one is actually doing anything concrete to achieve this. The western imperialists, both of North America and of Europe, have backed Netanyahu’s genocidal war. The local Arab regimes have, in one way or another, either directly collaborated with Israel or simply uttered empty platitudes about a state for the Palestinians. These are in no way the friends of the Palestinian people.
And yet, the millions of ordinary working people, the youth, the poor and downtrodden, across the Middle East sympathise with and support their brothers and sisters in Palestine. Only the revolutionary overthrow of all those responsible – the imperialists, the Zionists, and their accomplice regimes throughout the Middle East – can create the conditions for the genuine liberation of Palestine, and an end to the horror and bloodshed.
Emergency protest for Gaza: which way forward?
Nick Oung
On Tuesday 19 March, Revolutionary Communist Party members joined an emergency demonstration at Downing Street in response to the renewed bombing of Gaza.
As our comrades talked to demonstrators, we felt the growing disillusionment among those who are still coming to these protests – disillusionment with imperialism, and with the limited strategy of marches from A to B. One protestor summarised this feeling, stating:
“What they’re doing has shown there’s no real democracy. We had the Tories, now we have Starmer – but they’re doing the same thing.”
Yet from the stage, nothing that was said really connected with this mood, as speakers continued to repeat the same old platitudes as they have uttered since October 7, 2023.
Many speakers for instance referenced the enduring courage of the Palestinian masses. But the genocide is continuing, the ceasefire has failed – and meanwhile, only a few hundred turned up to the demonstration.
No wonder then, there is an increasing mood of frustration among those who turn up, regardless of how politically-minded they are. One person we talked to conveyed this well as she said:
“It seems like we’re having a very gentlemanly revolution… I come here to be one extra body, but I don’t even listen to the speeches anymore. We talk about revolution but everyone is too polite. We need to do something more.”
The first thing we can do in this direction is to say the truth. An imperialist-brokered ‘ceasefire’ is no solution. This was obvious among all the protestors we talked to.
From such a position it flows that we can have no trust in Starmer – and in fact, no illusion that any imperialist can grant an end to the war from the kindness of their hearts. The RCP offered this by attacking Starmer’s militarism and the hypocrisy of ramping up ‘defence’ spending at the same time as he ruthlessly cuts welfare.
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We agree with the general slogan of the demonstration to “stop arming Israel” – not a penny, not a bullet should go to the war machine.
The best weapons to fight for this demand are to organise workers themselves to stop the production and transport of weapons and the flow of arms to Israel; and to denounce the real imperialist intentions of Starmer’s government in providing political cover for the genocide.
The main enemy is at home. To those who ‘want a revolution and feel the need to do something more’, we call on you to join our party in the fight to overthrow imperialism!
