“When the leaders speak of peace, the common people know that war is coming.”
(Berthold Brecht)
It was a fragment of conversation that one might overhear by pure coincidence, and then have thought nothing more of it. It occurred one morning when we were strolling along a picturesque beach in a Spanish resort in Santander. The sun was shining. The sea, which had been somewhat rough previously, was as calm as a lake. Everything was a picture of perfect peace and tranquillity.
“Can you see those black clouds on the horizon?”
“No, I cannot see them, where are they?”
“Can you hear the sound of thunder in the distance?”
“No, all I hear is the lapping of the waves on the shore.”
The conversation faded, as suddenly as it had begun, and everything was quiet and peaceful once more.
But this apparently insignificant conversation caused me to cast my mind back in time. In my mind’s eye, I could see other beaches in another time – beaches in my own country. Places of enjoyment and tranquillity, full of families with young children building sandcastles that would soon be swept aside by the incoming tide.
The children are laughing, eating ice cream, playing games. It all seems so natural, so obvious, so inevitable, that the scene seemed to be frozen in time for all eternity, as if those moments of contentment and happiness were destined to last forever.
But that was very far from the case. Within a few months, this everlasting peace would be swept aside and destroyed as utterly as those carefully constructed sandcastles.
The date of that scene was the summer of 1939.
There seems to be something in the human psyche that instinctively turns aside from all thoughts of violence and unhappiness. Never mind about politics! Never mind about tomorrow! Let us enjoy life while we can, for we all know that we will not live forever.
Yes. Such thoughts are quite understandable. And yet it is foolish to believe in false paradises that can be swept away in a moment, like a child’s sandcastle.
And the storm clouds that are gathering swiftly in the Middle East now represent a most serious threat to the lives of millions of people, including many who live very far away from the smoking ruins of Gaza, and who wrongly believe that the storm will never reach their shores.
The gathering storm
As I write these lines, the drumbeat of war can be heard ever more plainly, if only you take the trouble to listen for it. It is the distant thunder that initially cannot be heard, but which becomes louder and louder as the storm approaches.
The situation in the Middle East is a veritable minefield, just waiting for the initial impulse to explode into something vast and terrifying. And the actors in this drama seem to be playing out their roles with a kind of blind fatalism that is incapable of predicting its next step. They proceed with the deadly inevitability of robots that are programmed to behave in ways over which they have no understanding, and even less control.
As in every drama, there are heroes and villains. As in every war, the forces of Evil are battling against the forces of Good. But both these forces, apparently mutually exclusive and hostile, are conspiring to produce a catastrophe of global significance.
The drama is not new. It is almost a century old. But the latest, and most deadly act opened on that fateful day, 7 October 2023, when the forces of Hamas breached the security barriers behind which the people of Israel erroneously believed that they were safe from attack.
At this moment in time, it is entirely superfluous to dwell upon the barbarity of that attack, which horrified world public opinion. Israel then appeared to be the victim. And if there is a role which its ruling circles are most expert in playing, it is precisely the role of victimhood.
All the world knows of the ghastly atrocities that were committed by the Nazis against the Jews. This provides the current state of Israel with a ready-made excuse to commit all kinds of terrible atrocities against other people, while constantly pointing the finger in the direction of the Holocaust, which is supposed to provide a justification for anything whatsoever.
Anyone who dares to criticise the actions of the Israeli state nowadays is automatically accused of the crime of antisemitism. But this is a cynical lie. It is not at all the same to criticise the crimes of the Israeli state and its current government, and to be guilty of the poisonous racism of prejudice against the Jewish people in general.
If there is anything that has served to blacken the name of Israel and to isolate in the eyes of world public opinion, it is precisely the actions of Netanyahu and his government following 7 October.
The Bible says: “An eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, a life for a life.” But when one examines the actions of the Israeli state, this is never the case. It is not a case of “a life for a life”. The life of one single Israeli citizen is paid for in the blood of hundreds and thousands of innocent Palestinian men, women, and children.
On 7 October, about 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage. But since then, more than 40,130 people have been killed in Gaza – the overwhelming majority of them innocent men, women and children.
This is not justice, not even revenge, but a murderous policy of one people against another people. The Israelis protest loudly against the accusation of genocide. We will not quibble about words. But if this is not genocide, it is something that comes very close to it – so close, in fact, that it is virtually indistinguishable from it.
And what possible connection can there be between the powerful modern state of Israel – a monstrous and aggressive state, armed to the teeth with the most modern and fiendish weapons of destruction, and heavily subsidised by US imperialism – and the poor defenceless Jews of Eastern Europe, driven by the SS into the gas chambers of Auschwitz and Belsen?
No! The fact is that the roles here have been entirely reversed. The poor oppressed people here are not the Israelis, but the Palestinians, who have been ruthlessly dispossessed, driven off their land, forced to emigrate from one place to another, driven by a cruel and aggressive enemy.
They are now forced to take refuge in a miserable strip of land, lacking in all resources, mercilessly oppressed and tormented – just as the Jews were driven into ghettos and tormented by their ‘superior’ enemies.
Oh yes, you will protest that this comparison is unjust. Protest as much as you like. But the facts of the case speak for themselves. And facts are stubborn things.
The tragedy of Gaza
It is not necessary here to list the appalling atrocities that have been committed, and are being committed daily, by the forces of Israel against the population of Gaza. The facts are too well known to require further elaboration.
Let us confine ourselves to the latest sad statistic. Since the beginning of the barbarous onslaught on its people, more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, according to the territory’s health ministry. But the true figure is far, far higher than this, since countless numbers of victims remain buried under the rubble of their homes.
Of course, the world has seen many horrific instances of the inhuman acts of war perpetrated by imperialism against the people of poor countries.
The case of Yemen is only the most recent example. The Saudi regime – openly backed and armed by the governments of the so-called democratic, civilised western states – deliberately pursued a policy of bombing and starving the people of that unhappy country into submission. And the western media, typically, maintained a hypocritical and complicit silence on this appalling barbarism.
But there is something particularly disgusting about the cruel treatment of the people of Gaza.
What precedent can there be for a population of approximately 2.23 million people (before the war) being forcibly imprisoned in a tiny strip of land, the same area as Las Vegas, where they are deprived of all the necessities of life – food, shelter, medicine, even water itself? The one that comes to mind is precisely the Warsaw ghetto.
Thousands of helpless people are subjected to constant and merciless bombardment that makes no distinction between civilian and military targets, but relentlessly carries on its butcher’s work, day and night, sparing nothing and nobody.
Even those who seek to provide some assistance to the traumatised and starving population are regarded as legitimate targets for the Israeli forces.
The scenes of devastation, death, and destruction in Gaza are a constant source of provocation to the masses – not only in the Arab world, where they are taking to the streets in protest, but for people in every country in the world, including the United States itself.
The declared aim of the Israeli regime was supposed to be the destruction of Hamas. No doubt, considerable damage has been inflicted upon it, although at terrible cost to the civilian population. And yet, ten months after its commencement, Israel’s military campaign is not going as well as expected.
The hostages have not been released. And Hamas still continues to exist and put up resistance. For every fighter that is killed, it can rely upon a constant supply of new recruits from the embittered youth of Gaza – full of hatred for the aggressors, and determined to take revenge.
Far from making Israel more secure, Netanyahu’s war on the people of Gaza has made it a thousand times more insecure and vulnerable. Inside Israel, there is growing discontent with the government, which is blamed for prolonging the war and failing to secure the release of hostages.
Protests in Israel are growing, with tens of thousands demanding early elections in which Netanyahu would certainly be unseated and possibly face trial.
But far from causing Netanyahu to relent, it has precisely the opposite effect. He is more determined than ever to continue the war, and even to widen it into an even more destructive and dangerous conflict, engulfing the whole region.
Netanyahu’s agenda
The argument is frequently heard that, “Netanyahu is in a more difficult position, because if there’s a deal, there’s a very good chance that he’ll lose his coalition.”
It is quite true that Netanyahu’s far-right allies have vowed to pull out of the government if, for example, he agrees to release large numbers of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails in return for the hostages.
But this is an explanation that explains nothing. In reality, Netanyahu does not need to point a finger at his coalition partners in order to excuse his actions. It is not the so-called ‘far right’ that is dictating the policies of the Israeli government, but Netanyahu himself.
On all sides, his power base is eroding. His proud boast that he alone could guarantee Israel’s security was exposed as hollow by the events of 7 October. And the war on Gaza has not produced the desired results. Instead, it has provoked massive and growing discontent inside Israel.
Netanyahu is a cynical and hard-bitten politician with a record of unprincipled manoeuvres and also corruption. He knows very well that if the war in Gaza ends, he will lose power and find himself facing a prison sentence. The prospect of ending his political career is naturally not particularly attractive to him. The likelihood of a lengthy stay in an Israeli prison cell is an even less appetising prospect.
His only hope to rescue something of his reputation is to present himself as a strong leader – a war leader. But, by definition, a war leader must have a war to lead. From this not very complicated equation, the only possible deduction immediately becomes clear.
The mass demonstrations of popular discontent in Israel are a constant irritation, but insufficient to force him to change course. Mass demonstrations on the streets of London and New York may be the cause of concern for the politicians of those countries, but that is entirely their problem, and of no interest to the Israeli Prime Minister.
No amount of words, pleading, cajoling or even threats on the part of the Americans (which he knows have absolutely no content to them) will make the slightest difference. Netanyahu needs war as much as he needs air to breathe. And he will not be deflected from the fatal course that he has chosen.
But the question arises: what war? The war in Gaza, as we have seen, is now hopelessly bogged down. Having flattened the entire territory, the Israeli army is left without any viable targets. Even some generals have expressed their dissatisfaction with the situation.
So Bibi must think of something else. He must convince the people of Israel that they are faced with an existential threat from powerful enemies without. And these enemies must be confronted with force, since this is the only language that they understand.
What he really needs is the direct involvement of the US military in a wider confrontation in the region – one that would force the USA and all its allies to openly side with Israel. To that end, Netanyahu is determined to provoke a regional conflict which would force the US to become directly involved on Israel’s side.
The enemy that he has chosen to confront is none other than Iran.
Israel provokes Iran
The Israelis immediately set in motion a programme of systematic provocation, designed to push Iran into war. On 1 April, an Israeli strike on the consular section of the Iranian Embassy in Damascus killed seven Iranians, including two veteran commanders.
Immediately, like a well-rehearsed chorus, America’s allies exerted pressure on Iran to exercise ‘restraint’. Is it not strange that it is always Iran that is called upon to ‘exercise restraint’, never Israel? Yet it is precisely to Israel that such advice ought to be addressed.
Iran has, in fact, shown considerable restraint in the face of a series of blatant provocations by Israel. That is why, back in April, they carefully calibrated their reaction to what was a blatant provocation by Israel designed to bring about precisely that result.
When, on 13 April, Iran launched an attack on Israel with over 300 drones and missiles, they made sure that the Americans (and also the Israelis) were warned in advance of this attack, which was limited to certain objectives.
This, from any point of view, is what is known as ‘moderation’. But what was the result? Iran’s moderation was immediately portrayed in the western press as a sign of weakness. Far from deterring the Israelis, they were emboldened to launch new and even more blatant provocations.
And is it not strange that there was no condemnation of Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran? The assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the capital of a foreign country on 31 July was an act of war. Yet it was met by a deafening silence in the West.
There have been no UN resolutions, no talk of sanctions against Israel, nothing at all! Yet it is the Israelis, not the Iranians, who are guilty of constant provocative acts of aggression, clearly calculated to inflame the situation and create the conditions for all-out war. Yet this fact is never mentioned in our ‘free press’.
On the contrary, it is Iran that is portrayed as the aggressor, and Israel the victim. The butcher, whose knife is steaming with the blood of his victim, is portrayed as the victim, whereas the lamb is portrayed as an evil aggressor who has clearly caused his own throat to be cut by his persistent and unsolicited bleating!
No, gentleman! The Iranians are not the aggressors in this drama. They have no wish to be pushed into a war with the USA. Nor could such a war be remotely in their interests.
America’s role
Netanyahu is determined to pull America into his war with Iran. And the present actions of the Americans clearly indicate that his calculations are entirely rational. What was the reaction from Washington to these events?
Joe Biden’s reaction to the events of 7 October was entirely predictable: he immediately jumped on a plane and flew to Israel, where he publicly embraced Netanyahu, promising him unlimited support against Hamas. This was effectively giving him a blank cheque – a very foolish policy, for which Washington subsequently had to pay the bill.
Not satisfied with making one diplomatic blunder, Biden hastened to repeat it immediately upon hearing of the conflict with Iran. He rushed out a statement saying: “Our commitment to Israel’s security against threats from Iran and its proxies is ironclad.”
Yet another blank cheque was issued to Netanyahu, which he quietly pocketed, intending to cash it in full – which he has done. And Joe Biden has now been forced to pay up in full.
The massacre of civilians in Gaza seriously damaged Biden’s electoral chances, eroding his support with key constituencies. His blanket support for Israel and stubborn refusal to call for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza alienated Muslim voters and the youth.
Deep divisions also exist within the Democratic Party. The US administration is divided between those who would like to ‘deal with Iran’ and are itching to launch an attack, and others who have not completely taken leave of their senses, and are rightly fearful of the consequences.
The crisis in the Middle East now seriously threatens to upend the Kamala Harris electoral bandwagon. This presents the administration with an insoluble problem. How to square the circle?
On the one hand, the administration (including Harris) continues to pledge undying support for Israel. On the other hand, they are desperately trying to prevent a new conflagration from exploding with the danger that the United States would be directly involved.
A general war in the Middle East would have catastrophic effects on the world (and US) economy, which is already threatened with an economic slump. Moreover, the US has military bases in many countries in the Middle East that are vulnerable to attack, as are its many economic and commercial interests.
It is therefore an extremely risky gamble for the United States to be drawn into a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. For the Democrats, it would be an unmitigated disaster. It would immediately derail the campaign to boost the image of Kamala Harris in the run-up to the November presidential election.
This is what explains the panicky response to the present crisis in Washington.
‘Negotiations’
In a desperate attempt to prevent – or at least postpone – a conflagration in the Middle East, Washington pressured Israel, Egypt, Qatar, and Hamas to participate in negotiations to work out terms for a ceasefire in Gaza.
This was chiefly the initiative of Joe Biden, who was by this time seriously rattled by the prospect of losing the presidential election to Donald Trump. If he could only pull off a coup in these negotiations, it would hopefully silence his critics in the Democratic Party and on US campuses, and help him to win.
On 31 May, Biden announced a draft plan for a ceasefire in Gaza. This was accepted by Hamas. But Netanyahu has developed the manipulation and destruction of negotiations into a fine art.
His tactics are always the same. He first of all issues misleading statements, strongly implying that he has reached agreement. But at the very last moment he puts his boot through the entire proceedings, raising all kinds of new issues that he knows will guarantee failure.
There is every reason to believe that this time will be no different. It hardly seems credible that Israel is serious about solving the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, while at the same time deliberately causing a worsening humanitarian situation by its continuing military activity.
Even while Netanyahu was engaged in a cosy chat with Mr. Blinken in his Tel Aviv office, Israel said its aircraft and troops had “eliminated dozens of terrorists” over the past day, and had destroyed Hamas compounds and a tunnel network where rockets and missiles were found.
Palestinian media reported that six people had been killed in an Israeli air strike near an internet access point near the southern city of Khan Younis on Monday, and that another four were killed in a strike on a car in Gaza City, in the north. Meanwhile, murderous settler violence against Palestinians on the West Bank continues unabated.
Blinken’s lies
The Americans sent their chief negotiator, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, to try to salvage the so-called peace talks, which he warned were “maybe the last opportunity” to secure a ceasefire agreement.
Now, if the Americans seriously wished to force Israel to accept a ceasefire in Gaza, they could do so quite easily. America is funding and supplying his genocidal campaign in the Gaza Strip. It is subsidising Israel to the tune of $20 billion.
Without that support, Israel would not be able to continue the war for even another day. If Washington wished to end the war, it could do so by issuing a stern warning to Israel that all aid would be cut off immediately, unless they accept the ceasefire.
But no such warning has been issued. Nor will it be. Netanyahu knows this very well, and therefore can afford to laugh at the diplomatic comedy being played out for his benefit.
All the declarations issued by the Americans and Israelis are generously anointed with the most soothing diplomatic oil: “the signs are promising”; “the difference between both sides has been reduced”; “the possibility of an agreement has never been better, or more urgent”. And so on and so forth.
Naturally, Blinken’s first stop was Tel Aviv, where he met with Netanyahu, with whom he discussed for three hours. What did they talk about? We do not know for sure, since the whole affair was wrapped in a thick cloak of secrecy. But we can hazard a pretty good guess.
Blinken put the case for a ceasefire. Netanyahu informed him at some length that, while he was, of course, prepared to listen to any reasonable proposal, he had some useful suggestions of his own, which he hoped would be discussed in future negotiations until full agreement had been reached on all disputed issues.
The Secretary of State was well aware that Hamas had made it clear that it was prepared to sign up to the original proposals put forward by President Biden at the end of May, but that no other new proposals could be put on the table. Nevertheless, he listened quietly to the Israeli Prime Minister, like a little timid schoolboy listening to a stern lecture from a schoolmaster.
At the end of this agreeable little conversation, full agreement was reached between the representative of the United States and the Israeli government. That is to say, the former swallowed everything that was put forward by the latter, and the latter did not even bother to listen to anything that was said by the former.
On 19 August, Blinken announced that Netanyahu had agreed to what he called an American “bridging proposal” for a ceasefire deal in Gaza. It is now up to Hamas to agree, Blinken added, hoping that they would accept it without protest. If they failed to do so, the implication was very clear: that Hamas, and nobody else, would be responsible for the failure of the negotiations.
Strange to say, the Secretary of State at no time revealed the actual content of his ‘bridging’ arrangement with Netanyahu. Clearly, this bridge only admits traffic in one direction! Netanyahu reportedly told Blinken that he “planned to send a negotiating team to Cairo later this week for a new round of talks” with Egyptian, Qatari, and US mediators.
These words sound extremely suspicious. To begin with, we only have Blinken’s word for the fact that Netanyahu agreed to anything at all. The Israeli Prime Minister has remained silent as the grave on the subject.
Netanyahu’s intentions are perfectly clear. By constantly introducing new elements into the negotiations, he intends to spin them out indefinitely; or, even better, to provoke their collapse and then blame Hamas for its alleged intransigence. But the plain fact is that the deal was blocked, not by Hamas, but by Israel.
Hamas has accused Israel of bringing in new demands and said that the time for negotiation is over. It has said it is ready to implement the terms it agreed to last month. That is indeed the case. Benjamin Netanyahu is constantly inventing new ‘red lines’ – including giving Israel the right to restart the war.
He insists that Israeli forces must remain on Gaza’s border with Egypt, to stop armed groups smuggling in weapons. In fact, this would amount to a continuation of the Israeli occupation of Gaza – something that is clearly unacceptable to Hamas.
Netanyahu feels supremely confident that he will get the support of the USA, because he has been here before. He knows that the powerful pro-Israeli lobby in the United States will always compel any in the ministries to back Israel, no matter what the consequences.
If the consequences were not so serious, it would have been comical. This miserable farce is what passes nowadays for diplomacy! And the consequences now are very serious indeed.
Iran’s response
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was a turning point. It immediately exposed the real intentions of the Israeli government. If they really believed in the negotiations, why did they order the assassination of Haniyeh?
Moreover, the murder was deliberately timed to coincide with the inauguration of the new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian – an action evidently planned to cause the maximum humiliation to Iran.
Haniyeh had been the chief negotiator of Hamas in the ceasefire talks. He was generally regarded as a moderate. It is hardly credible that one party in a negotiation should calmly order the murder of the leading representative of the other side, and still continue to negotiate, as if nothing had happened.
The Iranians predictably reacted to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh with fury. And once again, all the efforts of western diplomacy were directed to putting pressure on Iran to ‘moderate its stance’ – i.e., to do nothing in the face of a most vicious act of aggression. Not a single word was directed to Israel, the author of that act of aggression.
America’s ‘allies’ (that is, servile lackeys) obediently jumped to attention. The leaders of France, Germany and Britain issued a joint statement, directed not at Israel, but at Tehran, ordering it to refrain from any retaliatory attacks “that would further escalate regional tensions”. About the event that actually caused those tensions – the killing of Haniyeh, and of a Hezbollah leader in Beirut – not a single word!
This statement was coached in terms that were bound to infuriate the Iranians still further. Britain’s ‘Labour’ Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made phone calls to President Pezeshkian, appealing to him to do everything possible to prevent further military escalation.
Starmer urged the Iranians president to “stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack”. The arrogant insolence of these gentlemen is really incredible. Just imagine if the Iranians had launched a missile strike to murder a visiting foreign dignitary in London on the same day as the coronation!
Mr Pezeshkian told Sir Keir that it was western countries’ support for Israel that had encouraged it to continue with its atrocities, and that it was this that was threatening peace and security in the region.
According to an Iranian state news agency: “Pezeshkian stated that from the point of view of the Islamic Republic of Iran, war in any part of the world is not in the interest of any country.” He pointed out correctly that “a punitive response to an aggressor is a legal right of states and a way to stop crime and aggression”. And that is indeed the case.
The Israeli attack was neither more nor less than an act of war, and it warranted a firm response. Let us recall the indecent haste with which America, Britain, Germany and France immediately rushed to proclaim Israel’s ‘right to defend itself’ after the attack of 7 October.
Apparently, Israel has the right to defend itself by the most criminal means at all times and in all circumstances. But those states that are attacked by Israel do not possess any rights whatsoever – except the right to fold their arms, smile and do nothing, thus inviting the next Israeli aggression.
Naturally then, the Iranian foreign ministry rejected the call for restraint from London, Paris, and Berlin with the contempt that it deserved. “Such demands are void of political logic, in complete contradiction to the principles and rules of international law, and excessive,” spokesman Nasser Kaanani said.
No doubt there are different opinions in Tehran as to the best way to reply to this aggression. Contrary to the constant assertions made by the western media that Iran is the main threat to peace in the Middle East, the Iranians have absolutely no interest in a war with Israel, and still less with the United States.
On previous occasions they have heeded the requests for moderation. They have shown restraint, as we have seen. And where does this get them? It has merely emboldened the Israelis to launch further attacks.
They have therefore drawn the inevitable conclusion that moderation and restraint in the face of unrestrained aggression are not only useless, but counter-productive.
The only thing that might conceivably persuade the Iranians not to launch an attack on Israel would be a successful negotiation of a ceasefire in Gaza. But since that outcome runs counter to the intentions of Mr Netanyahu, it is hardly likely to succeed.
We repeat: Netanyahu is set on a war with Iran that will widen into a broader war throughout the region, dragging in other powers, including the United States of America. That is his aim. And he will not be deflected from it by anyone or anything.
The Iranians will make their own calculations, and sooner or later will resort to action. But this time, there will be no holds barred, and no prior warning.
How America ‘de-escalates’
While America and its allies preach moderation and restraint to Tehran, they are doing nothing to restrain their friends in Jerusalem from their aggressive acts or their continuing massacre of the population of Gaza.
And while they appeal to the Iranians to do nothing that could lead to a further escalation, leading inevitably to armed conflict, they themselves are arming to the teeth and shipping vast quantities of weapons to the Middle East. This is the equivalent of pouring petrol on the flames, which were already flaring up quite nicely without their assistance.
The US has warned that it is preparing for “a significant set of attacks” by Iran or its proxies as soon as this week, and has built up its military presence in the Middle East to “help defend Israel”. Surprise, surprise! By now, we know the song. And we know the lyrics as well.
The US immediately announced it had ordered the deployment of the USS Georgia, a nuclear-powered, guided-missile submarine, to the Middle East.
The US military has also instructed the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to hasten to the area, while the USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group has been in the Gulf of Oman.
Additional F-22 fighter jets have flown into the region, while the USS Wasp, a large amphibious assault ship carrying F-35 fighter jets, is in the Mediterranean Sea.
And this is what Washington calls “avoiding escalation”! It is impossible to think of a more blatant provocation against the Iranians, who, by contrast, are supposed to sit quietly with their arms folded.
Moreover, the Israelis recently announced that some of America’s closest allies (read, ‘puppets’) are expected to join in the fighting on Israel’s side, once war breaks out. This statement was hastily deleted from the web – but as far as I recollect, it includes Britain and France.
All this, of course, will be news to the people of Britain and France, who, in common with the rest of the world, are being kept completely in the dark concerning the plans of the warmongers.
The risk of a broader war
Lebanon has very good reasons not to go to war. Its economy is already fragile. It has barely recovered from the 2006 war with Israel, and a renewed full-scale conflict would have a devastating impact on the country’s infrastructure and its people.
Nevertheless, the immediate threat is of an outbreak of war between Israel and Lebanon. In reality, the two states are already at war. The daily exchange of fire across this border, between the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Shia militia, have already resulted in hundreds killed, mostly in Lebanon.
More than 60,000 Israelis have been forced to abandon their homes and livelihoods in the north, and an even greater number of people on the Lebanese side. Domestic pressure is mounting for the Israeli government to ‘deal with’ Hezbollah by pushing its forces north of Lebanon’s Litani River, from where they would have less chance of sending rockets into Israel.
Hezbollah, for its part, would likely respond to a major Israeli attack and invasion with a massive and sustained missile, drone, and rocket barrage that could potentially overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome air defences. And nowhere in Israel is beyond its reach.
At this point, the US Navy, positioned offshore, will almost certainly join in on Israel’s side. And Iran would inevitably be drawn into the conflict. It will be a formidable force to reckon with. It has a sizable arsenal of ballistic missiles, as well as a network of proxy militias in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria that could be mobilised to intensify their attacks on Israel.
Down with the warmongers!
There is another dimension to this already complicated equation – one that is rarely, if ever, commented on in the western media. In recent weeks, Russian officials have engaged in discussions with Iran.
Russia remains one of the few international suppliers of advanced weaponry willing to do business with Iran. And the Russians have used Iranian-made, bomb-carrying drones in their war on Ukraine.
The secretary of Russia’s national security council, Sergei Shoigu, recently visited Tehran. No doubt this visit was planned some time ago. But under the circumstances, the assassination of Haniyeh was “impossible to bypass”.
Inevitably, these talks with Iran’s government will have dealt with far more questions, especially relating to military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow. Cooperation between the two states has increased markedly in the recent period. This has serious implications for any coming conflict in the region.
For its part, China has also been quietly building up its influence in the Middle East. Last year, the Chinese mediated a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia that saw the countries reach a détente, which effectively wrecked the plans of Washington to bring about a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In July, China, again to the extreme displeasure of Washington, hosted the signing of a deal between Hamas and Fatah, the main force in the US-backed Palestinian Authority in the occupied West Bank.
China has also hardened its stance in relation to Israel, openly criticising it for its conduct of the war, rather than following its typical pattern of calling for restraint on all sides.
But the time for restraint is passing quickly. And in any future conflict, China will also have a role to play.
All these elements are now combining to produce an extremely explosive cocktail. And once it begins, it is difficult to predict how it will end.
Millions of people in Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the United States are living in a state of blissful ignorance, while the dark clouds of war are gathering over the Middle East. The effects of a broader conflict will be felt in many countries that are far from the immediate scene of action.
It is the criminal policies of imperialism – particularly US imperialism, the most vicious and counter-revolutionary force on the planet – that are dragging the entire world down a path that can only lead to massive destruction, suffering, and death for millions of people.
A criminal role is played by the so–called ‘free press’, which systematically lies, manipulates the facts, and conceals important developments from public view. In this way, the struggle against war and militarism is blunted by a thick cloud of ignorance and misinformation.
But the worst role of all is played by the so–called ‘left’, which has lost any vestige of class consciousness or fighting spirit, and has played a dismal role – constantly tailing the right–wing reformist leaders like Starmer, who have long ago sold their soul to the devil and jumped on the bandwagon of the imperialist warmongers.
It is high time to sound the alarm!
- No more foreign adventures!
- Fight the warmongers!
- Down with NATO and American imperialism!
- No more arms or aid to Netanyahu or Zelensky!
- The real enemy is at home!
- Workers of the world, unite!
