IRELAND: It’s now almost 100 days
since Enda Kenny took office at the head on the FG/Labour Coalition. The
election result was heralded as an historic defeat for Fianna Fáil, a
victory for Fine Gael and a major breakthrough for Labour. But despite the Independent description of Enda’s “ageing
matinee idol looks and good manners”, the election was no beauty
contest. The Irish economy and the Irish working class have been put
through the wringer over the last 3 or more years and it was the serious
impasse in the economy and within society also that defeated Brian
Cowen and the late Brian Lenihan.
IRELAND: It’s now almost 100 days
since Enda Kenny took office at the head on the FG/Labour Coalition. The
election result was heralded as an historic defeat for Fianna Fáil, a
victory for Fine Gael and a major breakthrough for Labour. But despite the Independent description of Enda’s “ageing
matinee idol looks and good manners”, the election was no beauty
contest. The Irish economy and the Irish working class have been put
through the wringer over the last 3 or more years and it was the serious
impasse in the economy and within society also that defeated Brian
Cowen and the late Brian Lenihan.
The Irish Independent carried an article on Saturday asking the question: Can
Enda switch off the charm and turn on the toughness? This is an
interesting question to ask, since it sums up not only Enda’s touting
himself around the world as the new kid on the block and inviting the
neighbour’s round, but also sums up the attitude of the Irish bosses as
to what Enda and Eamon Gilmore ought to deliver. Here’s the
Independent’s analysis:
“The visits of
Queen Elizabeth and President Barack Obama helped to give him a rosy
statesmanlike glow, and anaesthetised us from our economic pain, at
least for a couple of weeks.
Enda’s
greatest asset of all, of course, is that he is not Brian Cowen, but he
has to face up to the same harsh economic realities as his predecessor.
In the past
few days pebbles have been grating under the door. Sceptics, even in his
own party, wonder whether Enda is strong enough to take the tough
decisions necessary to lead us out of our economic nightmare.
One Fine Gael
backbench TD told me: "He is going to have to take tough decisions
tackling vested interests. He can’t put that off indefinitely.”
He came into
power offering great hope that the terms of our EU-IMF deal would be
improved, but virtually nothing has been achieved on that score since
the dark days of Cowen.
Enda has
preferred to play the role of an avuncular chairman rather than a strong
leader in the Thatcher/Haughey mould. Johnny Fallon, political
consultant and author of Brian Cowen In His Own Words, said: "His style
is similar to that of Bertie Ahern. Before Bertie came to power there
were severe doubts about whether he had the qualities to be Taoiseach.”
Of course Bertie
Ahern had the great advantage on being Taoiseach during the Celtic Tiger
years. Betting on Enda Kenny managing to remain “avuncular” over the
next few years would doubtless attract excellent odds at Paddy Power,
the truth is that there remain dark economic storm clouds over Europe
and the coalition is likely to come under pressure from the working
class also.
One thing is for
certain and that is that the EU/IMF will want their pound of flesh.
Sooner or later the coalition is going to have to try and implement the
Croke Park Agreement in full, they will be under enormous pressure to
hit IMF targets and to be seen to be “reforming” or in reality slashing
the Public Sector. For sure, they won’t get any significant reduction in
interest rates on the bailout unless they are seen to be carrying out
instructions.
No surprise then
that the Independent raise the spectre of a Thatcher or a Haughey. It’s
interesting that the British Tories pointed to Cowen and Lenihan’s
attack on the public sector as a model prior to the British General
Election last year. Now, the Irish bourgeois are looking over the water
for examples of how to deal with the working class.
Throughout Europe
and most recently in Spain and Greece the working class has flexed its
muscles over the last period. In Ireland however there was a certain
lull on the industrial front after the signing of the Croke Park Deal.
The focus shifted to the political front. The bailout and the bill for
AIB, together with austerity and a sense of ineptitude and chaos were
more than enough to oust FF. Enda has certainly benefited as the
Independent points out from not being Brian Cowen. But sooner or later
the political crisis will reassert itself.
There will be
growing tensions in the coalition reflecting the different class bases
of FG and Labour. This will be accelerated when Enda and Michael Noonan
inevitably attempt to squeeze the working class further. The report on
the Joint Labour Committees also indicates that this process certainly
won’t be restricted to the public sector. The scene is set for a
development of the class struggle in Ireland over the next year or two.
That’s the motivation behind the question “Can Enda switch off the charm and turn on the toughness?” It’s not just a matter of style; it’s far more a matter of substance.
Questions need
to be asked of the Labour and Trade Union leaders also. The Irish
working class have demonstrated their willingness to struggle. But if we
are going to repel the attacks that are coming over the horizon we need
a clear leadership that stands unequivocally for the class interests of
working people. One thing is for certain, to be able to do that Labour
needs to break the coalition.
