Friday’s
day of protests by the Public Sector Trade Unions is a hugely important
day for the Trade Union and Labour Movement. It could mark a
significant step in the struggle to turn back the Fianna Fáil and Green
Party’s assault on the Public Sector and on the working class in
general. But what is the background to the current impasse and can
Cowen and Lenihan face down the massive opposition that will manifest
itself throughout the country later this week?
To
read the Irish Press recently and listen to the various Pro Bourgeois
and pro government commentators you might be mistaken in believing that
there was only one possible solution to the economic and social crisis
affecting the state. The working class must be
made to pay the price for the crisis. More particularly, the Public
Sector workers will have to pay the price. Aside from the obvious
retort that we never caused the crisis; many workers will no doubt
consider that the particularly bleak situation in Ireland is in large
measure the consequence of the clumsy and foolish policies of the
Finance Minister and An Taoiseach who have already siphoned off
billions of euro from workers pockets and then whose allies have the
temerity to criticise people as unpatriotic for shopping over the
border.
Indeed
the clamour to attack the public sector workers has been intense
recently, but at the same time there is another trend. It’s reflected
in articles such as “Will the Soldiers of
Destiny flee at first sight of ICTU’s battle tanks?” by Ivan Yates in
the Irish Examiner 29/10/09 and “Can Cowen walk the walk?" by Cliff
Taylor in the Sunday Business Post on 1/11/09.
The reality of
the situation is that while on the one hand the FF leadership is firmly
wedded to slash and burn economic policies such as Colm McCarthy’s Bord
Snip proposals they are increasingly aware of the pitfalls and
political fallout from the crisis, The public sector workers make up a
significant part of the electorate and the political perspectives for
Cowen and Lenihan are along the lines of General Custer’s half time pep
talk in the Battle of the Little Big Horn. Why only this week, the
Green Party in Donegal announced that it was declaring its independence
from the national party and urged other areas to do the same. There
have already been two recent defections from FF and the results of the
An Bord Snip carve up could
well see others looking to save their skins in some grand gesture or
another. This is after all what happened with the last two defections.
Much
of the material in the two articles details the options open to the
Finance Minister in the forthcoming budget and the state of the
country. Here is what Ivan Yates has to say:
“We
will borrow €25bn this year to fund this differential. This amounts to
12% of our national income (GDP). If we don’t tackle this now, by 2011
it will rise to 15% of GDP. Our national debt could spiral from €37bn
in 2007 to €160bn in 2014. Our international creditors who fund this
debt will require its repayment plus additional interest. Within three
years, we face the horror of all our PAYE taxes repaying debt. This
simple arithmetic has a compelling logic. We must act now. In fact, we
should have acted decisively in July 2008. This Government has presided
over endless talk and very little action. Budget day on December 9
represents their last opportunity to turn the tide. Economic recovery,
which is now beginning to emerge internationally, will not start to
occur here until we bite that bullet. Investor confidence and enhanced
competitiveness will only flow from decisive measures of cost
correction. All costs in our economy (eg, property, payroll, energy,
professional fees and public services) have to be reduced by 20%. Only
then will jobs be viable and self-sustaining. “
While Cliff Taylor weighs in with the following:
“From
this week on, the pressure will really start to build. It will be
increased by Tuesday’s tax figures for October, which will show that
revenues remain weak and that there is no chance of a bounce in
receipts making the job easier. In fact, taxes remain weak and even
more may have to be done to meet our budget targets. For Taoiseach
Brian Cowen’s government, there is simply no easy way out.”
The
risk that these two gentlemen have identified is that the weakness of
the Coalition in the Dáil could compel the government to try and soften
the blow. As Clive Yates points out:
“Brian
Cowen has a consistent track record. He articulates tough tones of
obduracy and then compromises. The past three budgets have all been
followed by political climb-down (eg, medical cards for pensioners and
the pension levy applying to net income).The most recent
example was the renegotiation of the programme for government with the
Greens. At the last minute FF’s education stance on third-level fees
and pupil-teacher ratios was abandoned in lieu of pragmatic expediency.
Fancy footwork on drink-driving limits may kick that ball into the
lifetime of the next government. ICTU leaders and members are not
fools. Saddam Hussein’s much-feared Republican Guard dissipated in the
face of a military invasion. Don’t be surprised if FF’s Soldiers of
Destiny back down on the public pay battlefront. If so, we’ll all pay
later.”
The
Sunday Business Post article makes the point that the success of the
Public Sector trade unions forthcoming action depends to a great extent
on the attitude of workers in the private sector:
“Taking
on the public sector unions, in an environment where the rest of the
public backs this approach, is one thing; taking them on without wider
public support is quite another.The
complicating factor is, of course, the anger caused by the banking
crisis. No matter how much the government preaches that this is a
separate issue to the public finance crisis, there is no doubt that the
public are mad as hell at the need to bail out our banks at
considerable risk to the taxpayer.The
political danger for the government is that this all gets caught up in
one public mood of objection to anything it hopes to do in the budget.
For every cut that is planned, the cry will go up: ‘‘Why should we
agree to this when we are spending billions bailing out the banks?"
There will be a massive response to the trade unions call for a protest on November 6th
and rightly so, the cuts and the job losses coming as they do on top of
previous cuts, wage cuts and levies mean that we simply can’t afford to
take any more. To the bosses we are just statistics on balance sheets
and of little importance. But in every service and every office and
every classroom in the civil service, the councils, in education and in
health the effects of the proposed cuts will be dramatic. The talk
today has been of the fact that tax revenues are back to 2003 levels,
But its one thing to wind the clock back by 6 years, its another
completely to take an axe to vital services.
Its no wonder then that the Trade Union leaders have been forced to take action and
the evidence of the IMPACT ballot demonstrates that the mood among
workers has immensely strengthened since March when the last big round
of balloting took place in the run up to March 30th. The unions in the Frontline Alliance are balloting their members and the potential for a united and coordinated struggle is clear.
But
despite the pressure they are under, sections of the trade union
leadership are still keen to make it clear to the government exactly
where they stand. Peter McLoone of IMPACT has been reported as saying
that he fully expected job cuts in the years ahead. David Begg has also
indicated that the unions are still firmly wedded to the idea of Social
Partnership. But the bosses for sure are not thinking along the same
lines. The 10 point plan that the trade union leaders are building
their campaign around is very weak and offers little comfort for
workers in reality. It is weak and vague, we need a clear socialist
programme that breaks with the anarchy of capitalism, nationalising the
banks and the major industries under workers control and management.
A
commentator on RTÉ made the point recently that the Irish Trade Unions
reliance on “Social Partnership” was unlikely to gain much progress
given the short time up until the budget and that they had been
considered weak and watery by their European counterparts. In fact
Brian Lenihan made the point that if these measures had been applied in
France then all hell would have broken loose.
The
active trade unionists and socialists participating in the protests on
Friday have to be very clear: the only way to guarantee victory is to
continue to apply pressure on the trade union leaders and fight for a
national coordinated campaign of industrial action across the public
sector. We need to argue to turn November 24th
into a one day Public Sector General Strike. Cowen is in a tight place,
and can be forced to compromise, otherwise he risks political
annihilation. But we also have to struggle to ensure that the trade
union leaders don’t sell the movement short.
The
battle over the future of the public sector in Ireland is key to the
defence of workers living standards, jobs and conditions. It could also
split the government and bring down the coalition. Cowen is a lame duck
for sure; he is likely to be driven out of office at the next election
in two years time. But the Fianna Fáil lame duck needs to walk the
plank before then and only the resolute mass action of the working
class can make that happen.
· No job cuts and no wage cuts
· Make the bosses pay for the crisis
· All out on November 24th
· For a 24 hour Public Sector General Strike
