It is the worst disaster for Japan
since the war, since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This triple whammy of a
force-9 earthquake, a tsunami, followed by a nuclear disaster, has
shaken the country to its very foundations. And the consequences of this
multifaceted catastrophe are widening by the day.
It is the worst disaster for Japan
since the war, since Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This triple whammy of a
force-9 earthquake, a tsunami, followed by a nuclear disaster, has
shaken the country to its very foundations. And the consequences of this
multifaceted catastrophe are widening by the day.
Outside Sendai Airport. Photo: Roberto De VidoMore
than 10,000 people have perished, hundreds of thousands have been
displaced, and huge numbers are injured or missing. Medicines are
running out as well as food for those most affected in Japan’s north
east. Sickness and hunger have become increasingly prevalent, revealing
the enormity of the humanitarian crisis overtaking the country. This
devastation is going to have massive knock-on effects in the weeks and
months, and possibly years that lie ahead, not only for the people of
Japan, but far beyond.
Despite attempts to play down the seriousness of the situation by
some commentators, the damage done in Fukushima can only be described as
disastrous. “Events in Japan are more serious than Three Mile Island,”
stated Steven Chu, the US energy secretary. But it may turn out to be
even worse, with the danger of possible nuclear meltdown and all that
would mean.
The severity of the crisis has exposed the deep fault lines in
Japanese society, whose establishment built the country’s future on
nuclear power. Japan’s ruling class, in league with the corrupt nuclear
industry, were determined to maintain its economic hegemony whatever the
cost and whatever the danger. In an attempt to reduce their dependence
on imported oil and coal, they constructed a string of 55 nuclear power
plants along the world’s most earthquake-prone islands. In other words,
the present nuclear catastrophe was manmade and simply waiting to
happen. It was just a matter of time.
Japan’s elite was not concerned about ordinary lives. All they were
concerned about was power and prestige. They were given the green light
to build nuclear plants, despite the obvious risks. They believed they
could be made “safe” by new technology. But how is this possible? How
can you plan for the unplannable? “What the events point out to me,”
said Stephanie Cooke, editor of Nuclear Intelligence Weekly, “is that a
nuclear reactor is so hugely complex that planning a sequence of events
that could lead to an accident are simply too multitudinous. Every time
there has been an accident, there is a different sequence of events that
led to these.”
When the earthquake struck Fukushima, three reactors shut down as
planned, but no one expected the backup cooling equipment to be knocked
out by the tsunami. No one foresaw the spectacular explosions that
destroyed the outer buildings. Nobody foresaw the dangers of the spent
nuclear fuel overheating in the cooling pond. No doubt there will be
further surprises in this unstable and dangerous situation.
This light-minded strategy of relying on nuclear power is not simply a
Japanese problem. More than 400 reactors operate worldwide and about 90
of these are in areas of significant seismic activity, according to
figures from the World Nuclear Association. And more are being built.
Six nuclear reactors are being planned in Jaitapur in India, just down
the coast from Mumbai. The site is in a Zone 3, or medium risk, seismic
area. But nuclear reactors are big business, financed by the world’s
biggest international banks, and in this case are being built by Areva,
the French energy giant.
The company that owns the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant is
the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). They are mired in secrecy and
even in past corruption. In 1995, they were engaged in a cover-up of the
extent of an accident at the Monju fast-breeder reactor. Four years
later, three workers at the Tokaimura reactor suffered high doses of
radiation when safety procedures were circumvented. Then in 2003, TEPCO
was caught falsifying safety data, forcing the closure of its reactors
for a month. Again in 2007, after another earthquake, TEPCO admitted
that another plant which had leaked radiation had not been built to
specifications.
“They have no crisis management because they were never ready for a
crisis,” explained Michael Cucek, a political analyst living in Tokyo.
“The fear is TEPCO is not telling the whole truth. They are not in the
habit of telling everything they know.”
Such secrecy is endemic in this billion-dollar industry, which also
has a very cosy relationship with governments and regulators alike. It
has been described as “Japan’s nuclear power mafia”. Although even the
prime minister Kan, to his annoyance, was kept in the dark about the
third explosion for more than an hour.
However, now this rottenness at the heart of business and government
is coming to light. It is producing anger in the population, subjected
to misinformation, fear of radiation and growing hardship. While foreign
nationals are urged to leave Tokyo by their respective governments, the
local population is left to ponder its fate. While the Bank of Japan
and the G7 can spend billions on supporting the yen, hundreds of
thousands remain without heat, shelter, medicine or food. Yuhei Sato,
governor of Frukushima prefecture said people were “uneasy and angry.”
In the weeks that lie ahead, TEPCO and the government will be held to
account for their handling of the crisis and the failings of the
nuclear industry. A weak corrupt political system, already under strain,
will be further undermined. “That disenchantment is now complete”,
stated the Financial Times (19-20/3/11)
The crisis has also spread fears throughout the world’s business
elite, worried at the global fallout from Japan. Within days, Germany
suspended operations at seven ageing nuclear reactors, as 50,000
protesters took to the streets. Other countries have instituted
“reviews”, as they grapple with the backlash against nuclear power. This
includes Britain, which has one of the most ambitious new-build
programmes in Europe, and could see at least 10 reactors built over the
next 15 years.
Apart from the political implications there are also serious economic
implications arising from Fukushima. The weak world economic recovery
is finely balanced. Japan, presently the third biggest economy in the
world, remains vital to the health of world capitalism. But Japanese
capitalism is threatened with economic relapse, as the yen is driven up
in value by speculation, and its industries are subject to power cuts
and supply line disruption. The G7 powers, as well as the Bank of Japan,
have rushed to purchase yen to keep its value down. A high yen will
make Japan’s exports, on which it depends, dearer and therefore less
competitive. Net exports accounted for three-quarters of Japan’s growth
in the past two years. If they fall, Japan falls, and the world economy
is affected. Japan’s GDP in the last quarter actually fell. A further
decline in this quarter, a likely scenario, would mean a double-dip
recession.
The global supply chain has also been fractured. The vehicle industry
is being hit particularly hard. North-eastern Japan has become a big
centre for car production, where Toyota, Honda, Nissan and others
operate facilities manufacturing parts. The capitalists were all keen to
embrace “lean production” techniques from Japan, to keep supply lines
as tight as possible. Stocks were deliberately run down to the absolute
minimum. This can work well as long as there is no disruption. Now they
are seeing the affects to this short-sighted policy. This once again
reveals the anarchy of capitalism, which attempts to squeeze the maximum
profit from every pore of production, but leaves itself more and more
vulnerable.
Japanese companies account for 40% of the world’s technology
component supplies. The country makes 30% of the world’s flash memory
used in smart phones and digital cameras, and 10-15% of D-Ram memory, a
key part of every computer. Asahi, NH Techno and Nippon Electric Glass
are three of the world’s top suppliers of glass for flat panels.
Japanese components account for a third of the cost of Apple’s iPhone.
These supply chains are being broken by reductions in output due to
power cuts and production stoppages. Infrastructure has also been
affected by the crisis, especially transport, again due to fuel
shortages. There are concerns about the country’s ports. Chip plants
need large amounts of electricity and water, both of which have been
badly affected. Given the complex nature of these manufacturing
operations, even small disruptions can reverberate for months.
Honda has 113 suppliers around the disaster area. These will be
affected to one degree or another. This disruption will have a knock-on
effect further afield. There were potential supply problems at the Honda
plant in Swindon, its main facility in Europe. Japan is not only an
exporter, but has an important internal market for cars, the third
largest after China and the US, which will be also affected by the
crisis.
The unstable economic situation is being further compounded by the rise in oil prices, following instability in the Middle East.
Japan’s output is still well below levels set before the global
crisis of 2008-9. This new crisis will come at an economic cost. The
attempt to stabilise the situation by pouring more money into the system
will see government debt soar. It is already at 200% of GDP, the
biggest in the industrialised world. This will place further stain on
the government budget as the Bank of Japan purchases greater quantities
of government bonds. If growth also slows for the next couple of
quarters, Japan’s debt to GDP will become even more extreme. But there
is little more they can do. Interest rates have been held at almost zero
for years. While reconstruction will help boost the construction
industry and provide an economic spur, it will take a long time to
recover from the crisis, the cost of which has been put at almost
$500bn.
Under these circumstances, Japan can become the Achilles heel of
world capitalism. The Japanese nuclear power sector is in turmoil. The
plants at Fukushima will need to be decommissioned and possibly
nationalised. The crisis will put pressure on the nuclear industry, as
the government, under pressure from a sceptical and angered public
opinion, demands a rethink of their future strategy. This will place
more demands on coal and oil in these times of great turbulence.
It demonstrates once again how capitalism and the market economy are
incapable of developing society in a harmonious fashion. The drive for
profit inevitably leads to short-cuts and corruption given the vast
amounts of money involved. Nuclear power in the hands of profit-hungry
companies is a dangerous concoction. This is a key lesson from the
Japanese catastrophe.
Today’s resources cannot be left at the disposal of big business. The
anarchy of capitalism, based on the maximisation of profit, puts the
livelihoods of millions at risk every single day. The resources of the
planet need to be harnessed and planned and not recklessly squandered in
the pursuit of private profit. The contradictions of the system have
led us into a blind alley. If capitalism is allowed to continue there
will be more catastrophes, even more dangerous than that of Japan today.
The world is being brought to the brink of disaster by private
ownership and the tyranny of the market. Fukushima is a living, or more
correctly a dying, example of this. The situation cries out for rational
planning.
Only by the overthrow of crisis-ridden capitalism and the
establishment of socialism can we avoid such a nightmare scenario in the
future. Only then can we democratically plan our resources, where the
needs of ordinary working people take absolute priority as opposed to
the insatiable greed of multinational corporations. Only then will
science become the handmaiden of humanity’s progress and development and
not the slave of billionaire profiteers. That is the lesson of Japan’s
misery.
