German elections usher in a new period of instability

Sunday’s elections reveal an enormous
shift within the German electorate. Of particular importance is the
massive decline of the SPD vote, mirrored by a huge increase in support
for DIE LINKE which stands to its left. The victory of the right-wing
parties means the German capitalists are preparing for an offensive
against the biggest and most powerful working class in Europe.
Interesting times lie ahead.

German big
business will now get the sort of government they prefer: a coalition
of the two traditional bourgeois parties – the Christian Democrats
(CDU/CSU) and Liberals (FDP) based on a stable majority of seats in the
new Parliament (Bundestag) elected on September 27.

It is not an accident that on the morning after the elections the
share prices of the two main electricity suppliers, RWE and E.on, went
up sharply as the companies are hoping that the new coalition will
strengthen nuclear power as a highly profitable source of energy and
allow the old plants to continue production for many more years.

Bankers and industrialists are also happy now that the SPD has been
so discredited by their actions that big business won`t have to make
any deals with them. Against the background of a deep crisis and
impending mass redundancies, workers, unemployed, pensioners, students,
and youth, i.e. the overwhelming majority of the population, will
suffer. The bourgeois parties now control the Bundestag as well as the
Bundesrat, Germany`s second chamber based on the representatives from
the 16 federal states, and they have the Federal President on their
side as well.

This is a landmark and milestone as after 11 years in office, the
Social Democratic Party (SPD) received a devastating vote and will now
end up in opposition. At the same time, the arch-neoliberal FDP will be
back in office for the first time since 1998 when the last CDU/CSU/FDP
coalition government was defeated by an alliance of the SPD and the
Greens.

The FDP is the purest of the bourgeois parties – in the sense that
it directly represents big business ‑ and it is going to exert a
decisive influence within the new government, as they saved Chancellor
Merkel’s office, and have provided her with the key number of votes to
be able to remain in office.

While the SPD lost 11.2 per cent and has been thrown back to the
level it had back in 1893, the CDU/CSU also lost quite a few votes last
Sunday. It was only the spectacular 4.7 per cent growth of the FDP and
the peculiarities of the electoral systems that gave the bourgeois camp
a relatively cosy majority of 332 out of 622 seats.

This was an election of negative records: the lowest turnout in any
national election since World War II and the biggest loss of any party
in the last 60 years. Only 70.8 per cent bothered to vote this time.
With 23 per cent of the votes cast for the SPD they scored much worse
than even in 1953 when they won over 28 per cent.

An indication of how drastic the SPD losses are, is revealed by the
following figure: in 1998 ‑ when the CDU/CSU and FDP lost their
majority after 16 years in office and there was a strong wind of change
‑ the SPD won more than 20 million votes. Last Sunday they got less
than ten million, losing more than half of their support over the last
11 years.

This is a severe blow and the result of 11 years of “reformism
without reforms” – in reality counter-reforms ‑ to the detriment of
workers, the unemployed and pensioners. When the then SPD-Greens
coalition, led by the right-wing Social Democrat Gerhard Schröder, lost
its majority in 2005, the SPD leaders sought to cling to power through
a "Grand Coalition" with the CDU/CSU. The result has been a severe
crisis of the SPD that is assuming historic dimensions.

Workers are not stupid and have not forgotten that in the 2005
election campaign the SPD agitated against the "Merkel tax", i.e. the
CDU/CSU proposal to increase VAT by 2 per cent. However, eventually the
Grand Coalition agreed to increase VAT by three per cent. That was
indeed a “compromise” whereby you end up conceding more than was being
asked for originally!

On nearly all fronts, the SPD leaders have been doing the dirty work
for the capitalists and as a consequence they are responsible for
pushing the SPD into a deep crisis. Considering the recent role of
these leaders, why should any worker in the recent election campaign
have shown any enthusiasm for SPD leaders such as Franz Münterfering
and Frank Steinmeier who are ossified Schröderites and Blairites and
decisive architects of Schröder`s programme of counter-reforms known as
"Agenda 2010"? During the recent election campaign, the SPD leaders
refused point blank to raise the idea of collaboration with the Left
Party (DIE LINKE) and in fact were hoping that they would be needed to
patch together another Grand Coalition. How could any party activist
find the will to fight for such a perspective? Just one example of the
mood at the rank and file level I witnessed a day before the election.
I met a fulltime SPD party worker and loyalist and she told me that she
would rather see a majority CDU/CSU and FDP government, because the
continuation of a Grand Coalition would virtually destroy the party.
This was symptomatic of the mood of party activists.

Oskar Lafontaine during the election campaign in Saxony. Photo by Die Linke Sachsen.Immediately
after the historic defeat last Sunday, some SPD left-wingers, Young
Socialists and rank and file party structures began to voice their
desire for a fundamental political change and a new and more credible
leadership. However, it still remains to be seen whether the SPD left
will come out of this strong and determined enough to wage a revolt in
the party before the November national party conference, raising their
own independent programme and standing candidates against the
right-wing leaders. Back in 1995, Oskar Lafontaine successfully
challenged and defeated the then right-wing party leader Rudolf
Scharping in the leadership election with a fiery left-wing speech
which motivated the rank and file and laid the basis for the 1998
election victory. Lafontaine subsequently broke with the SPD in 2004
and is now the leader of DIE LINKE. It remains to be seen whether there
is anybody of a similar calibre in the SPD today. The official
spokespersons of the SPD "left" appear to be quite tame and timid, and
so far do not seem to be up to the task.

On the other hand, the fact that DIE LINKE got a double-digit result
is of historical significance for Germany, as there has not been any
workers´ party of considerable strength to the left of the SPD since
the 1930s.

Because of this, once again, the mainstream media and right-wing
politicians tried to launch an anti-communist and red scare campaign
against DIE LINKE during the last few weeks, but failed to achieve
their objective. DIE LINKE grew by more than a million votes ‑ from 4.1
to over 5.1 million ‑ and not only consolidated its historical base of
support in the East at around 28%, but it has also built a base in all
parts of the country, gaining well over ten or even 15 per cent in many
working class and inner city areas in the West. In the East, the former
DDR [German Democratic Republic], DIE LINKE has decisively eclipsed the
SPD which was down from 30.4% to 17.9% of the votes cast. DIE LINKE
attracted above all the votes of workers and of the unemployed (31 per
cent of the latter), thus consolidating a solid class base. In the East
there is in fact still no majority for the bourgeois parties. In the
West, DIE LINKE has increased its share from 4.9% to 8.3%.

What is significant, and also an expression of the increasing
political change and instability, is the fact that the two
traditionally "big" parties ‑ SPD and CDU/CSU ‑ have both seen their
support melt away. Whereas in the past they could always secure some 80
or 90 per cent between them, they now do not even reach 60 per cent
nationally, let alone a two thirds majority. In both camps, of the
"left" and the "right", the "smaller", and apparently more consistent,
parties gained and benefitted from the disappointment of the electorate
with the two main big parties. This shows that traditional ties and
loyalties are increasingly being dissolved.

                                  Photo by DIE LINKE.For
the traditional bourgeois voters and conservative CDU/CSU/FDP
supporters, there was an apparent wind of change and a clear reason for
them to vote. The triumphant shouts of the right-wing leaders, however,
must not divert attention away from the fact that against the
background of a low turnout of 70.8 per cent, the combined vote of the
right of 48.4 per cent in reality merely represents around 34.3 per
cent of the total electorate, a significant fall in real active support
for these parties. When the bourgeois parties scored a historic victory
in the 1983 election ‑ a victory that ushered in a decade and a half of
right wing dominance – they won 55.8 per cent of the votes cast with a
high turnout of nearly 90 per cent, they enjoyed the support of 49.7
per cent of the total electorate. This indicates that the mass base for
Merkel´s new right-wing cabinet is considerably slimmer than that of
the Kohl government in the 1980s.

Another feature in this election is to be found in the fact that the
extreme right-wing and neo-fascist parties were hammered and between
them only scored a total of two percent. Even in the East where the
biggest of them, the Hitlerite NPD, had built some base in certain
areas, their vote shrunk from 3.6 to 3.1 per cent. In the West they
stagnated to around 1.1 percent.

The new Merkel government will quickly have to show what it has to
offer under conditions of capitalist crisis. Lafontaine and other left
leaders are predicting that a new economic crash will come inevitably.
Mass redundancies will sharply increase unemployment in the coming
months. The new government will make the workers pay for the crisis and
for the rescue operation to bail out the banks.

All this will undoubtedly increase social unrest in the country. The
union leaders, who had hoped that their friends at the top of the SPD
would remain in the government and thus leave open a channel for their
diplomatic talks and petitions, will find themselves in a situation in
which they have to mobilise their rank and file to fight back against
attacks.

DIE LINKE is now faced with an enormous responsibility. Many workers
who are fed up with the SPD are looking towards the party. Thousands
will join, and the party now needs to organise a sound basis in
workplaces, unions, neighbourhoods, schools and social movements. Above
all, DIE LINKE needs a socialist programme and must raise the question
of public ownership of the commanding heights of the economy as a
decisive lever to get out of the blind alley of capitalism.

Election results at a glance