House price inflation has fallen below wage increases for the first
time this decade according to Rightmove’s latest monthly survey which
shows asking prices for houses edged up 0.2% on the month before to
stand 2.4% higher than a year earlier, down from 4.9% in May and the
lowest this decade. They go on to predict that the house price increase
figure will soon fall to zero.
“This year’s traditional spring bounce in asking prices has ground
to a halt. Sellers have belatedly realised that buyers are unwilling or
unable to pay ever-increasing prices,” said Miles Shipside, Rightmove’s
commercial director.
First-time buyers – the main prop of the property market – remain
priced out, Mr Shipside said, adding that at current rates of pay
rises, it would take seven years for the “affordability gap” to be
closed, assuming house prices don’t fall.
A growing number of City economists think that the slowdown in house
prices over the past year, combined with a sharp drop in consumer
spending, could soon provoke the Bank of England’s monetary policy
committee to cut interest rates, for fear of a much steeper fall.
The slowdown in the housing market is particularly acute in London,
where prices are the most expensive. Asking prices fell 0.7% on the
month, reversing May’s 0.7% rise, while the annual change showed a fall
of 3.1%, the second consecutive drop.
Economists are divided as to whether the housing market, which has
seen prices triple in the past eight years, will remain stagnant while
average earnings catch up, or fall sharply. The first is wishful
thinking.
Some – like the Halifax and Nationwide – think that when most of the
big house price indices fall to zero this autumn, the market could
suffer a serious blow. The Bank’s governor, Mervyn King, has admitted
that the monetary policy committee has been surprised at the speed with
which consumer spending has slowed this year and that the link between
house prices and consumption may be stronger than the MPC had thought.
Who would have thought it, when mortgage repayments increase, and house
values fall people spend less money in the shops. And these geniuses
are supposed to be ‘overseeing’ the economy!
