The
last few days have seen a flurry of activity, the AIB bill has been
presented, the polls show Labour miles ahead of both Fianna Fáil and
Fine Gael. The economy is faltering and there is a four year budget
plan on the way, although it is unlikely to be delivered to Leinster
House via a cement lorry. But what are the prospects for the main
parties and how do the trade union struggles over the last two years
fit into the equation?
Brian Lenihan’s bad week
It’s
been a bad week for Brian Lenihan, whether it was the announcement of
the cost of the AIB bailout, Bill Clinton’s remarks that Ireland was
toast, or chimp noises and shouts of “dive dive” courtesy of Citicorps.
But that could be all about to change. Or at least that’s what the
Great Irish School of Wishful Thinking would have us all believe.
It
must be obvious to most people by now that Brian Cowen is in deep
political trouble. He’s been under the spotlight for appearing to be
the worse for wear on Good Morning Ireland, he has been told to clean
his act up also. But perhaps the biggest problem for An Taoiseach is
that 61% of the electorate want him to resign this side of the next
general election. There is a good reason for this. As Bill Clinton
famously remarked “It’s the economy, Stupid”. Just on cue the Finance
Minister is preparing a four year budget plan, which can only mean more
cuts, tax rises and misery.
The soldiers of destiny?
But
who would stride forward to take up the leadership of the Soldiers of
Destiny? Well, there seems to be only one candidate. Mr Brian Lenihan
will pull a workable four year plan out of his hat, smite his foes and
lead the party to office once again. For us, that seems like a very
long odds bet. After all, while Brian Cowen has experience himself as a
Finance Minister, the architect of the government’s economic policies
and the pension levy, the cuts in pay, the emergency budgets, the slash
and burn tactics of the past two years is none
other than Mr Brian Lenihan. He is also well versed in the strategy of
Wishful Thinking, as evidenced by his claims that the Irish economy was
in fine shape a couple of weeks ago.
While
Brian Cowen has quite rightly become unpopular because of the
government’s programme and more recently he has come under the
microscope personally, perhaps the explanation as to why Brian Lenihan
is being touted as a new leader for Fianna Fáil is more to do with his
not being Brian Cowen, than anything more substantial. We
would argue that the opprobrium in which the government is held is
going to be a far more important issue when it comes to the next
election than which individual is leading the party.
With
that in mind however, the government majority in the Dáil is so thin
that the ousting of Cowen might in itself provoke a crisis that could
bring down the coalition. Certainly holding off on the by elections for
as long as possible is a symptom of the extent of the problems that the
coalition faces.
Labour’s rise in the polls.
The
economic and social perspectives for Ireland have been covered in a
number of articles we have written recently, but suffice to say, the
state is in dire trouble. There is huge unemployment, emigration, an
ongoing banking crisis and a faltering economy that is at risk of going
back into recession. All this against a background of huge instability
within the euro zone, the threat of a double dip recession on a world
scale, stagnation in world trade and austerity measures and cuts in
public spending that could last a generation.
As
a rule the party in power loses support in a recession while in a boom
they benefit from the emollient effect of economic growth. But, while
the economy is decisive in the final analysis, there are all manner of
social and political factors that determine the political development
of the state. It seems that Fianna Fáil and the Greens are dead meat,
but it would be wrong to assume that they will merely implode.
Role of leadership
The
most important factor in the situation at the present time is the role
of the leadership of the Trade Unions and the Labour Party. There is a
real significance in the fall of support for Enda Kenny and Fine Gael
over the past few months. The tendency of the Fine Gael during the
crisis has been to swing to the right. They have no real differences on
the fundamental issues with Fianna Fáil. This is why they are reduced
to making cheap remarks about Cowen appearing drunk on Good Morning
Ireland.
The
reasons why Labour is in the lead in the polls are many, within the
opposition Eamon Gilmore is faring far better than Enda Kenny, which
explains the recent Fine Gael crisis. But there is far more to it than
that. It is important to look at the development of the movement of the
working class over the past two years as the background to the current
situation. The Irish working class was forced into action because of
the deep economic crisis and the attacks from the Fianna Fáil/Green
Coalition. Hundreds of thousands marched through Dublin in February and
again in November. There was a huge public sector strike at the of last
year and a whole flood of smaller demonstrations and strikes.
Social Partnership
Throughout
that time however the key strategy of David Begg and Peter McLoone was
to find some sort of deal, any deal with the government. But, as we
have pointed out throughout, there was an enormous gulf between what
was possible during the Celtic Tiger years and what is possible in a
slump. In basing themselves on an illusory perspective of social
partnership, the trade union leaders attempted to rest on the movement
of the public sector workers in particular, as a bargaining tool with
the government. But as we explained at the time any deal that they came
up with would be full of holes. Under the current economic conditions
any deal would come under pressure from both the working class and the
state.
That
is precisely the experience of the debacle in December when the
government showed the trade union leaders the door when they offered
two weeks unpaid leave to offset the cuts. The Croke Park Deal, which
we opposed in advance, was forced through ICTU despite being voted down
by many unions. While many workers would have breathed a sigh of relief
that there was a promise of no pay cuts for four years, this is at a
tremendous cost.
Already
the moratorium on pay cuts is under pressure and it is possible that
there will be new attacks on it next May, when a review clause kicks
in. But on the other hand the implementation of cuts, redeployments and
reorganisations across the public sector has already generated
opposition which will become more and more prevalent over time. But the
signing of the deal certainly had an impact on the movement for a
period. We predicted that a lull in the class struggle might follow the
agreement.
The political front
Under
conditions of crisis and where the movement of the working class is
blocked on the industrial front, there is a tendency for workers to
begin to move onto the political front. Although it has become
fashionable on the left in Ireland to deny the possibility of the
development of a left wing within the Labour Party, it is quite likely
that the pressure on the Party will begin to see some differentiation
on the basis of pressure from below.
The
Irish Times reported recently that some 650 people joined Labour in
September. Gilmore’s programme will need to be tested in practice
before its limits become evident to the mass of workers. However, at a
certain stage a left will develop. As Leon Trotsky explained, “It is
wrong to mistake the first month of pregnancy for the ninth, but it is
far worse to deny the act of conception in the first place”. The growth
of support for Labour in the polls, particularly in Dublin and in terms
of membership is a sign of the shift going on among the mass of working
people. It is important also to remember that Labour’s traditional
third place in the polls means that in many areas workers have voted
tactically in the past, this isn’t as much of an issue with Labour in
front in the polls. So Labour’s support outside of Dublin will also
tend to rise.
Contradictory situation
But
the prospect of a Labour lead coalition has certainly provoked some
concern within the ruling class. We have reported recently on the
attempt to cut Labour’s links with the unions. The bourgeois understand
that a Labour lead coalition would come under pressure from the working
class. It would be in a very contradictory situation. Fine Gael would
hold the balance of power and it would inevitably be a government of
crisis. Under these conditions there would be a sharp differentiation within the party.
While
one or two individuals like Joe Higgins standing outside the party
might gain some support, the mass of workers will look towards Labour
to solve their problems. The task for Marxists within the Labour Party
and the trade unions will be to explain that these problems are the
product of the senile decay of capitalism. That’s why we stand for the
nationalisation of the banks and the big industries under democratic
workers control and management as part of the socialist transformation
of society.
